Breaking Down The DH Market

8 01 2011

Posted by Brady

This season there are 3 super premium options for the designated hitter role. Two of which will definitely have a job somewhere if they want it, and one….might not. Naturally, I am talking about Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, and Manny Ramirez.  These are three aging future Hall of Fame hitters with limited defensive skills, who can still hit the ball a mile. All three of them have their advantages and their disadvantages. Let’s break it down, shall we?

Jim Thome

Anyone who has read my work on Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors in the past knows that I have always been, and will always be a huge Jim Thome fan. He’s Jim Thome. Who doesn’t love him? In any season where he’s played in 100 games his career LOW in home runs is

His ISO was a ridiculous .282, and at age 39 he just had what you could call a career year.

23.  You know exactly what you’re getting from him every year. Just pencil him in for 25 bombs and let it go. But he does more than just launch baseballs. 1679 walks. That is good for ninth all time and first among active players. He owns a .278/.404/.559 hitting line, and an OPS+ of 147.  His ISO is a ridiculous .282, and at age 39 he just had what you could call a career year.

As far as any issues with Thome, it’s pretty clear. The only man who has been rung up more than Thome is Reggie Jackson. He can’t be nor does he want to be a full time player, and he’s a career .238 against left handed pitchers. He can’t even play an emergency 1B. He hasn’t touched a glove since 2007, and that was only for one game.

Manny Ramirez

His plus side is so ridiculously similar to his former Indian teammate that it’s barely worth talking about. 555 home runs, .998 career OPS, and a 155 OPS+. Everything that Thome can do, Manny Ramirez can do, just a little better. .312/.411/.586 career hitter. The only thing that Manny Ramirez can’t do with a bat better than Jim Thome is pure extra base power. Ramirez only has a .274 ISO. But

The only problem with Manny Ramirez is that he is Manny Ramirez.

over their careers, Manny and Thome have been virtually just as valuable. Thome brings a career 73.5 WAR to to Ramirez’s 72.2

The only problem with Manny Ramirez is that he is Manny Ramirez. Do I really need to recap this? How many problems did he have in Boston? How many problems did he have in Los Angeles? How many problems did he have in Cleveland? I can’t think of many in Cleveland….but that was 10 years ago. Cleveland is his ideal destination. It seems like he wants to finish where he started. Any team looking to sign him better be careful, as he hasn’t had 500 PAs since 2008. He is still a game changer. But only when he wants to be.

Vladimir Guerrrero

How can anybody not what Vladimir Guerrero on their team? Over the course of 162 games he averages 35 home runs.  And while Thome and Ramirez average 40 and 39 respectively, he has one thing that they don’t. An uncanny ability to not strike out. How does

How can anybody not want Vladimir Guerrero on their team?

he do it? He has an uncanny ability to make contact, and good contact, on any pitch in any count, in any situation against any pitcher. The man doesn’t strikeout, but the man doesn’t walk. He his, however a career .320/.383/.563 career hitter. Only Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, and Jimmy Foxx have a .320 average and 400 or more home runs.  His ISO is lower than Thome and Ramirez, at .243 but his OPS+ is right in line at 143.  Throughout his 15 year career Guerrero has contributed 61.7 WAR to the Expos, the Angels, and the Rangers.

I’ll be honest, I tried to think of any cons to a team trying to sign Guerrero, other than being old, there isn’t a lot. He doesn’t have a significant injury history. He’s reached 600 PAs every year but one since becoming a full time player. And he is a suitable back up outfielder. Teams start a lot worse (Delmon Young) than Guerrero. In my personal opinion, he is the best option at DH this year.





What the Beltre Signing Means for Texas

7 01 2011

After settling for a short-term deal last off-season, Beltre finally gets his big contract.

Posted by BaconSlayer09

You know that saying, “you learn something new every day”?  Well today, I learned that Adrian Beltre doesn’t like to be touched in certain places (don’t know what this is about? See this). And no, I’m not talking about down there. Although it might be interesting to know Beltre did get his left nut obliterated by a baseball once. See you learned two things today and both have to do with Adrian Beltre.

However, the majority of this post will have nothing to do with where Adrian Beltre prefers to get touched or whether or not he still has a testicle remaining. Instead, I’ll be breaking down that nice 5 year $80 million deal he just got from the Rangers and how Beltre will impact the Rangers this upcoming season. It looks like you’ll be learning more than just two things from me today.

Adrian Beltre is one of the premier third baseman in baseball and the contract he got doesn’t really surprise me. Here’s the breakdown of the contract – 2011: $14MM, 2012: $15MM, 2013: $16MM, 2014: $17MM, 2015: $18MM, and a $16 million vesting option for 2016 with a bunch of ways for the Rangers to avoid it. So there’s at least $80 million guaranteed in this deal. By today’s standards at $4.5 million per win, this expects Beltre to an 18 WAR player over the longevity of the contract. However, that’s a very inaccurate figure since we need to take inflation into account. Using Bill James and CAIRO projections for 2011, we can get an idea of how much Beltre will be worth this upcoming season. We will then regress his WAR by .5 each year (since he’s getting up there in age). At the same time, we will inflate the value of a win by 6% each year. This is a rough estimate of his value throughout the entirety of the contract.

2011: 5.0 WAR ($22.5MM)
2012: 4.5 WAR ($21.5MM)
2013: 4 WAR ($20.2MM)
2014: 3.5 WAR ($18.6MM)
2015: 3 WAR ($16.9MM)
2016: 2.5 WAR ($15MM)

From the looks of this rough estimate, Beltre’s value will exceed his contract every season until the last guaranteed year of his contract. He will likely not be worth his $16 million vesting option. Overall, Beltre brings $115 million of value in 6 years and $100 million in 5 years. So the Rangers’ net gain will be around $20 million in both scenarios. Now this is considering Beltre ages well and doesn’t suffer any crippling injuries. I can’t see into the future, but given Beltre’s pretty clean injury history, this should be a fairly accurate model. If these educated guesstimates are what’s going to happen, then the Rangers just got themselves a pretty good bargain on one of the best 3B in baseball.

Enough about five years down the road, the question now is how does he impact the Rangers in 2011? By combining CAIRO and Bill James projections for 2011, I took a look at just how good the Rangers’ lineup will be using Baseball Musing’s Lineup Analyzer.

1. SS Andrus
2. 2B Kinsler
3. LF Hamilton
4. RF Cruz
5. 3B Beltre
6. DH Young
7. 1B Moreland
8. C Torrealba
9. CF Borbon

This lineup averages 5.18 runs per game. If you replace Beltre with Guerrero and swap spots with Nelson Cruz, that lineup would produce 5.25 runs. The .07 run difference per game results in a difference of 11.3 runs per 162 games.

Beltre has been fairly inconsistent as a hitter. He seems to hit extremely well in contract years.

But that’s not all, you also have to take defense into consideration since Michael Young is now a DH and Beltre will be the starting 3B. No matter what the Gold Glove voters tell you, Michael Young is not a good fielder. Tom Tango’s fan scouting reports had Young as a -9 defender last season. Young’s total UZR in the past two seasons at 3B is -13. John Dewan’s DRS hates him the most, giving him a -31 rating over the past two seasons. If you combine these three, Young’s around a -9 defender at 3B.

On the other hand, pretty much everyone agrees that Adrian Beltre is one of the best defensive 3B around. Beltre’s total UZR in the past three seasons is 37.5, his DRS is a +55, and the fans say he’s saved 30 runs over the past two seasons. Put these three things together and Beltre averages out to be a +15 defender at 3B. Therefore, the difference between Young and Beltre on defense is around 24 runs.

In order to evaluate the net impact, we subtract the 11.3 run difference between having Beltre on offense instead of Guerrero from the 24 run difference between Beltre and Young’s defense. In the end, we end up with a number of 12.7, or something around 1.3 wins. Those 1.3 wins are worth $5.85 million in value for 2011. Beltre’s salary is $14 million this upcoming season. Therefore, Beltre’s if we subtract Beltre’s surplus value from his salary, we then end up with the salary that Guerrero should sign for in order for the Rangers to break even for 2011. That specific number is $8.15 million. After Guerrero’s bounce-back season last year, it would not surprise me if a team gives Guerrero $8 million, if not more.

So technically, it’s a wash for this season in terms of money. The Rangers end up gaining 1 win in signing Beltre instead of Guerrero and they also don’t overspend a ridiculous amount this season. If Beltre performs like he is projected this season and then does not regress more than the model I posted above, this is a very good deal for the Rangers in the short term and the long term.

Now, if you didn’t click on the link I posted above, here’s part of what you missed.

Beltre's signing probably means Rangers players shouldn't try to touch his head...





In 2011, Vote for Blyleven

6 11 2010

Posted by Brady

“I’m really sad. I took it for granted that Dawson and Blyleven were going to get in.”-Hall of Famer, owner of 8 NL batting titles, and 3141 base hits, Tony Gwynn had to say about Bert Blyleven’s Hall of Fame snub last year. When Robin Yount was a rookie he said “If I have to face guys like Bert Blyleven, I don’t think I’m going to make it at this level.” and after facing Blyleven 114 times, he hit .182 with 1 home run. And Robin Yount was a damn good hitter.

The main knock against Blyleven is the notion that he wasn’t dominant enough. I suppose it all depends on your definition of “dominant.” He falls squarely into the mantra for current Twins pitching. Throw strikes. And he did that. Posting a 1.14 WHIP in his first stint with the Twins, and a 1.2 WHIP through the rest of his career.  Blyleven retired with a 1.198 WHIP.

 

When Robin Yount was a rookie he said "If I have to face guys like Bert Blyleven, I don't think I'm going to make it at this level."

But limiting walks wasn’t the only thing “The Frying Dutchman” could do. He knew how to hold on to the baseball. In his 22 MLB seasons, Bert Blyleven pitched 200 innings 17 times, and 300 innings once. With 242 complete games and 60 shutouts, he ranks second all time in both categories. Second only to the immortal Nolan Ryan. That’s not where the Nolan Ryan comparisons end, either. Ryan is the all-time strikeout leader with 5,714.  Blyleven is fifth with 3,701.  Right after Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Steve Carlton. And while the Anti-Blyleven crowd often expresses admiration for his strikeout total, the very next thing they say is “He was an accumulator. He stuck around to get that lofty total.”  But they never seem to realize that out of every member of the 3,000 strikeout club, that have officially retired, only Tom Seaver, Fergie Jenkins, Bob Gibson, Curt Schilling and Walter Johnson had shorter careers. They also have less strikeouts. And the only one has a WHIP that is ridiculously higher than Blyleven is Walter Johnson at 1.009. Blyleven is every bit as dominant, from a statistical standpoint than every one of these pitchers.

There are two knocks against Blyleven when it comes to his not being in the Hall of Fame. The lack of a Cy Young Award, falling 12 wins short of 300. Both of these truly confuse me. Bob Gibson has 251 wins, and Nolan Ryan doesn’t have any Cy Young Awards. He has the misfortune to have played in an era when wins were THE way that starting pitchers were evaluated. And when he became eligible for induction, we were still in that era. He also had the misfortune to pitch for a team that had Joe Lis (who?) as the starting first baseman. Hardly Blyeven’s fault. He does, however, have a no-hitter.

September 22, 1977. On Blyleven’s last start of the season. Blyleven hurled 9 no hit innings, striking out 7 California Angels, and coming one walk away from a perfect game. 28 batters faced him, and he retired 27. He and teammate Dock Ellis likely went out to party that night.

When confronted with his lack of baseball immortality, Blyleven handles it with

Having fallen 5 votes short in 2010, Blyleven should be expecting a call in 2011

humor. It was at TwinsFest 2010, when I ran into Bert Blyleven. Andre Dawson had just been elected to the Hall, while Blyleven fell 5 votes short. “**** the Hall of Fame” I said to Bert. He laughed, looked at me and said “Don’t say that loudly. They’re here right now.” But then he whispered, but you’re right. **** them.”

Having fallen 5 votes short in 2010, Blyleven should be expecting a call in 2011. It should be a great early birthday present.





The Giants are Back on Top of the World

2 11 2010

Opponents feared the beard all postseason long, as Brian Wilson was nearly flawless

Posted by BaconSlayer09

On October 2nd, 1954, the New York baseball Giants finished off a 4 game sweep of the Cleveland Indians for their 5th World Series in a span 50 years. Great moments like “The Catch” by Willie Mays have embedded the Giants into the eternal storybook of the World Series. However, since that fateful October day, the Giants have been kept away from the World Series trophy – until today.

When Brian Wilson (maybe he will begin a new trend of playoff beards in baseball) struck out Nelson Cruz on a high 90 MPH slider in the bottom of the 9th inning of game 5, the futility was broken. The Giants, backed by World Series MVP Edgar Renteria’s 3-run home run in the 7th, are back on top of the baseball world.

Renteria's two home runs were vital in games 2 and 5.

Renteria has been nothing short of awful since 2008 (especially for his $10 million salary these past two years). However, he is not a stranger to postseason heroics (see 1997 World Series). The 34 year old Shortstop came through in this World Series when both Pablo Sandoval and Mike Fontenot proved to be ineffective at 3B throughout the postseason. Manager Bruce Bochy then moved NLCS hero Juan Uribe to third and Renteria to SS. The move definitely paid off, as Renteria hit .412 in the series with two key home runs in two close games. Renteria’s dinger in game 5 was enough for the Giants to hand two losses to Rangers ace Cliff Lee, who was nearly flawless in all of his previous postseason starts.

The World Series victory for the Giants is almost a miracle, as they were far back of the Padres in the standings late in August. Thanks to a 10 game losing streak by the Padres and some incredible pitching, the Giants clinched the NL West on the last day of the season. They then finished off the Braves in 4 and shut down the defending NL champion Phillies in the NLCS.

While this World Series was far from exciting (the Giants outscored the Rangers 29 to 12), it is still the World Series. As avid baseball fans and unbiased spectators of this series, we here at Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors would like to congratulate the San Francisco Giants on their 2010 World Series Championship.

I now leave you with this well done video – Enjoy and to the off-season we go. As a side note, I bet the guy who wears the “Let Tim Smoke” t-shirt in the video is voting yes to Prop. 19 tomorrow.






How Mark Teixeira Built the Texas Rangers

24 10 2010

Posted by Cubs223425

As any baseball fan can (hopefully) tell you, the Texas Rangers are going to the World Series for the first time in the 40+ years of their franchise, now led by pitching great Nolan Ryan. They overcame an enormous payroll discrepancy, the dreaded Yankees offense, and what seemed like a mess of rigged umpire calls (simple physics would tell you that ball hit Swisher).

 

22-year-old Neftali Feliz sealed Texas' first World Series birth with a perfect ninth inning on Friday.

Doing such a thing is no simple feat. Every year, fans of each and every team try to think of reason why they can make the World Series and why others cannot. This year, we have the Rangers taking the place of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, being that team that survived the Seattle Mariners’ offseason spending spree and the constant questions of their rotation while building a team on prospects and cunning. Rather than go out and buy themselves a team, they built one.

This whole process took them from the days for Alex and Ivan Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro to the days of Josh Hamilton and Neftali Feliz and Michael Young. Over the years, we saw Texas move A-Rod for Alfonso Soriano, and Soriano for a pittance whose best piece is on Detroit (Armando Galarraga). Palmeiro became a PR lightning rod after his career because of his being linked to steroids. Pudge went on to win a World Series with the Florida Marlins. One man who gave Texas a big return on its investment was Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira.

Teixeira was taken fifth in the 2001 MLB draft by the Rangers, and he made his major league debut in 2003. After a somewhat mediocre 2003 season (.259 average, 26 HR, 102 OPS+), Teixeira exploded. From 2004-2006, he managed to hit .288 with 114 HR and a combined OPS+ of 134 , all while winning 2 Silver Sluggers and 2 Gold Gloves. But, as is the case with mid-market teams, a long-term future wasn’t meant to be.

Texas offered its star an 8-year, $140 million extension, but Big Tex said no (he later got 8 years and $180 million from the Yankees). As a result, Texas jettisoned him to Atlanta in July of 2007. Their return? Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones, Neftali Feliz, and Elvis Andrus. What have those four done since moving to Texas? Well, quite a lot, actually.

  • At the time, Saltalamacchia was seen as the prize of this deal. He was a catcher with power and a strong arm, but it was simply not meant to be for him, it would appear. After appearing to be a rising star in the Atlanta system, Salty began having issues with his throwing shoulder, to the point where even getting the ball back to the pitcher became a journey. He was recently sent to Boston in return for three prospects, making him look like a relative bust in the blockbuster trade.
  • Matt Harrison has struggled in his time in the majors, managing a feeble 5.39 ERA over three seasons. As of 2010, Harrison has been made into a reliever, though he made 6 starts for Texas this season. He has not been on the postseason roster for Texas.
  • Beau Jones has been off and on in the Texas organization, but his 2010 in AA seemed to show some promise. The 24-year-old lefty struck out 62 over 52 2/3 innings, with an ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.27. He could be bumped up to AAA next season, and possibly make an appearance for the big league club.

Those three have been less than ideal returns for Texas’ former superstar Teixeira, but there were two more names, and they are big ones: Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz.

  • Converted from being a starter, Feliz looked like a potential Rookie of the Year candidate with his 2010 season. His blistering fastball carried him to the elite level of closers at just 22 years of age. His 159 ERA+ produced a WAR of 1.8, behind only White Sox fireballer Matt Thornton and Kansas City’s Joakim Soria in terms of wins provided. That’s right–he even surpassed the great Mariano Rivera (1.7 WAR), and he helped send both Rivera and Teixeira packing last night, throwing a perfect ninth inning with two strikeouts and a fastball that registered as high as 100 MPH.
  • Despite regressing in 2010, Elvis Andrus has been a stud in the playoffs.

    Meanwhile, his teammate Elvis Andrus wasn’t exactly a slouch, either. After stealing 33 of 39 bases in 2009, and posting an AL-best 13.5 UZR (among those who qualified), the young shortstop took both an offensive and defensive step backwards in his sophomore season.  His OPS went from a decent .702 to an anemic .643, mostly due to putting zero fly balls over the fence in  2010, dropping his SLG from .373 to just .301. His baserunning suffered, managing just 32 steals in 47 attempts. The stellar defense regressed the most, though, as his UZR fell all the way to a 0.1. Regardless, his play in the postseason has been outstanding; he has managed to hit .333 and steal 7 bases in 8 attempts, including a perfect 4-4 against the Yankees.

That pair of 22-year-old rising stars (born less than 6 months apart) has helped carry the Rangers in the postseason, and they are a big part of why Texas is sitting in the position that it is now–its first playoff series win, its first home playoff game win, and its first World Series birth, all in the same postseason.

And it’s not just THAT Texas won; it’s also HOW the won. Game 6 was crucial, both in the sense of momentum, as well as in terms of rotation alignment. By winning against Yankees righty Phil Hughes, Texas now gets to guarantee a Game 1 start for Cliff Lee, something they will definitely need, whether they face two-time (soon-to-not-be) defending Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum of the Giants, or if they get Lee’s 2009 squad, the Philadelphia Phillies, who could march out a man among men in Roy Halladay, who has managed a perfect game against Josh Johnson, a playoff career debut no-hitter against Cincinnati, and 20 wins–all in 2010, which will likely see him win the 2010 NL Cy Young.

Rangers fans, remember who brought you Andrus and Feliz.

So when all of you Rangers fans are watching Elvis Andrus swipe bases and Neftali Feliz turn the dial up to triple digits, remember to thank the former franchise first baseman that you thought scorned you, because he clearly left you a big present on his way out the door.

Editor’s note: We are deeply sorry that Ron Mahay was not mentioned in this blog post. While Mahay was only a LOOGY who wasn’t good at anything else, he was probably extremely vital in a deal that featured Mark Teixeira. But we must not forget about Ron Mahay, for we do not want to offend him and his family/relatives by not giving him any credit for building this current Texas Rangers team. From the PTP^2  staff.





Back to the Future: Mark Prior

6 09 2010

Posted by cubs223425

My procrastination occasionally causes me great stress. Then there are those occasional times that it benefits me. This time is the latter. I have been meaning to post another article on the 2011 1B option for the Cubs (and I will…eventually!), but I’ve been thinking about school and being lazy. Then, I saw that the Texas Rangers had signed Mark Prior. I knew immediately that the aforementioned Cubs article would have to wait (a bit more on that shortly).

So, I was set to start an article on the reappearance of Mark Prior. Of course, though, I was too lazy. I played Call of Duty. I managed my fantasy baseball teams. I banned TrueBlue (I’m sure there were cheers). Well, it all worked out in the end, because now that I shook off the apathy, I started this article on the perfect day.

If Prior can return to his dominant form and stay healthy out of the bullpen, he could possibly snag himself a deal with another big league club this offseason.

Why is today the perfect day? Because Mark Prior made his debut for the Oklahoma City RedHawks, the PCL (AAA) affiliate of the Texas Rangers last night. When I started following baseball, Prior was the guy I latched onto. He was my favorite player, and will always be, whether he comes back on a white stallion or flames out in the minors and gets hurt again. In his one inning of work, Prior threw 16 of his 28 pitches for strikes, allowing two hits, walking one, and striking out a pair of Omaha Royals (he lucked out of facing Mike Moustakas, thankfully). While the RedHawks ultimately lost 9-1, it was a rare occurrence where you could legitimately claim a moral victory.

Anybody who has followed baseball for more than a couple of years knows the story of Mark Prior. #2 pick (behind Joe Mauer). Can’t-miss prospect (leading to that record bonus; a record Stephen Strasburg broke last year). Savior of the Cubs. Well, it seemed to be that way back then.

Prior came onto the scene in Chicago in 2002, after making the AA and AAA hitters he faced to start the year look like children. He posted a  solid 3.32 ERA in 19 starts, good for a  122 ERA+. The following season, there was no minor league stop to make. It was his time, and everyone knew it.

Working off of his previous season’s success, Prior was a dominant ace for the Cubs, as they worked their way into the playoffs behind a deadly pitching staff (anchored by what was thought to be an unstoppable force of Carlos Zambrano, Prior, and Kerry Wood–plus Matt Clement and Shawn Estes). Even looking now, I wonder how he managed the numbers: 211 1/3 IP, 18-6, 2.43 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 4.9 K/BB, 179 ERA+*

*Looking into the 2003 Cy Young voting, I saw Prior finished 3rd. Who won that year? Eric Gagne, and his 337 ERA+, 337! Seriously, what happened to him? You don’t forget how to pitch like that.

Of course, if you know the success, you know the failure. No need to go through the stats, but here’s basically how it went:

Steve Bartman robbed Moises Alou of a catch (that he said he couldn’t get, then said he could). Prior and the Cubs imploded in Game 6 after that, then in Game 7. The Florida Marlins won the World Series, one that Chicago could have gotten if they went into a matchup with the New York Yankees with Prior, Wood, and Zambrano. Then the injuries came.

Honestly, I was too young to remember it all. It was just a constant, depressing blur. The shoulder went. Prior came back. It went again. There was the collision that started it all. There was a liner off of his elbow–the one thing I can still vividly remember; seeing it slam off his elbow. Watching Aramis Ramirez dive into foul territory to make the catch (yeah, he was hit so hard he produced a line out in foul territory to third). Knowing he was gone for a LONG time (even someone as young as I was knew elbows don’t survive that).

This was my guy. I followed him almost religiously. He was my first baseball jersey. Heck, he was baseball to me. I watched all of this, and I didn’t wonder if the baseball gods hated him. I wondered if they hated ME.

He made a few attempts to come back in Chicago, but he kept ending up under the knife. Over. And over. And over. Eventually, the magic was gone, and Prior was, too. He made a couple of attempts with the San Diego Padres, but to the same disastrous ends. But he got an indie league to sign him this season.

Prior made a few appearances, totaling 11 innings. He struck out 22 of the 44 batters he faced. His fastball sat in the 90-92 range, close to what he typically threw pre-injuries (according to him; I was too young to care for MPH when I watched him). Apparently, that domination was enough to convince Texas to take a chance. So far, so good.

Now, here we are, more than 9 years after Prior was Stephen Strasburg. He’s turning 30 tomorrow (September 7th), older than the 21 he was when he made his MLB debut, but nowhere near Jamie Moyer.

Sadly, though, he was signed a few days short of the postseason deadline, but that may be for the best. He can finish up the AAA season and throw some side sessions, all at his own pace. Then, next year, he can show up to Spring Training with the chance to earn a roster spot.

He said himself he doesn’t care about where he gets slotted. Of course, he’s not going to be made a starter (maybe in a year or so, he could, but unlikely). He talks of taking a middle reliever’s job, hoping to be given an occasional 8th inning job. Who know? Maybe he can follow in his former rotation-mate Kerry Wood’s footsteps and become a closer.

But no matter what happens, I’ll still be here–awaiting this rehab as eagerly as the first.





Is Josh Hamilton The Next Willie Mays? Nolan Ryan Thinks So…

26 08 2010

Posted by Brady

Mays accumulated 9 or more WAR 9 times, en route to 163 WAR.

Tonight, while watching the Twins and Rangers game, ESPN kept on cutting to segments of an interview with new Rangers owner, Nolan Ryan. And me, not particularly interested in the boring, predictable things he was probably saying (we’re going to be competitive for a long time, I love this franchise, I hate pitch counts!), I used this time to go get a bowl of ice cream, or a can of coke. I did however her Nolan Ryan say something very interesting. “Josh Hamilton is the closest thing to Willie Mays we’ve seen.” That statement absolutely floored me. This is no slight to Josh Hamilton, the man is a very impressive player, with power for days, and he has a fantastic glove in the outfield, but…Willie Mays?

Now, when comparing a player from the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s, keep in mind that a lot of data just isn’t available. No UZR, no plate discipline information, there is a lot of stuff that just isn’t available.

The man who owns 660 home runs, and 3283 hits. Or, in other words, one out of every five of his hits left the yard. He walked more than he struck out 10 times, he was successful in stealing a base 338 times out of an attempted 441 times. 77% of the time he was successful.

Mays posted ISO (a personal favorite statistic) of .300 or more on 4 separate occasions. Keep in mind he didn’t play in a bandbox by any means. The Polo Grounds, Candlestick Park, and Shea Stadium were all cavernous. In short, Willie Mays did whatever Willie Mays wanted, and nobody was going to stop him from doing it. Mays accumulated 163 WAR over his career. Essentialy, he could’ve gone undefeated in your standard AL Central season. A beast in every since of the word.

Josh Hamilton is having a great year, but Willie Mays he is not.

Now…Josh Hamilton? The man is a great ballplayer, and had he gotten to the league quicker, had not abused drugs, maybe this could be a conversation. It took him 7 years to make it to the bigs. His career started in Cincinnati in 2007. And in those 4 years, he has absolutely raked. 537 hits and 90 home runs. Six hits per home run, and while that is only one more hit than Mays, if you stretch that out over as long of a career as Mays had, one hit makes all the difference. Over his career, Hamilton has stolen 28 bases, and has been caught only 8 times. Thirty-six attempts, which is great, but Mays stole 40 in his age 25 season. Where was Hamilton in his age 25 season? Not in the Major Leagues. Hamilton has yet to post an ISO of .300. By the time Mays was 29, which is how old Hamilton is now, he had don it twice, and once had a .292 season.

And I understand that Nolan Ryan was trying to pump his player up, like any front office does, but, honestly. That was a little extreme.

How does ESPN counter Ryan’s claim? “I don’t see the Willie Mays comparison. He’s much more like Mickey Mantle.”