2011 Chicago Cubs: Starting Pitching

5 10 2010

Posted by cubs223425

Before I even get this ball rolling, two things:

1. The Chicago Cubs will NOT sign Cliff Lee.

2. The Chicago Cubs SHOULD not sign Cliff Lee.

With that out of the way, we can move on to realistic possibilities.

I thought about writing this article for a moment, and I realized just how much of a mess this rotation really has become. Randy Wells has regressed worse than I could have ever imagined (and I didn’t like him going into this year AT ALL). Tom Gorzelanny did it again (looked good for a bit then imploded–just like in Pittsburgh). Carlos Silva summed up the epitome of the Cubs’ season (high hopes to start, then a complete wreck by the middle of the year). Carlos Zambrano starts the puzzling offseason questions (should they keep him? Will they keep him? Can they even move him?) by being the reverse of Gorzelanny and Silva.

With all of the above statements made, I went to work on Zambrano.

Five days ago, I looked at Zambrano in this post. When it came right down to it, I determined that Zambrano’s troubles outweigh all of the good he has done on the mound since his return. That didn’t stop the wonderful Jim Hendry from committing to him for next year, meaning that the Cubs will be committed to his $17.875 million salary for next season as well.

Unless something drastic changes in the Cubs’ front office, it appears that this sad mess of a rotation will be the exact same in 2011 as it was at the end of 2010. That would mean:

1. Carlos Zambrano – 129 2/3 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 131 ERA+

2. Ryan Dempster – 215 1/3 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1,32 WHIP, 113 ERA+

3. Randy Wells – 194 1/3 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 102 ERA+

4. Tom Gorzelanny – 136 1/3 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 106 ERA+

5. Carlos Silva – 113 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 103 ERA+

Here is what I notice from this:

Anyone that expects Zambrano to replicate a 3.33 ERA with a WHIP above that of Randy Wells, who posted a 4.26 ERA, is dead wrong. Seeing that alone lets me know that Zambrano needs to be gone. What’s worse is that the bottom-3 starters are barely average. That means that the Cubs would need a great offense to make up for it, and they certainly do not have that at this time. I’m seeing another losing season.

Originally, I came into this post looking to find a taker for Zambrano, but now Jim Hendry has ruined those hopes. So, now, the Chicago fan base has to pray that the Cubs move one of Wells, Gorzelanny, and Silva in a trade or to the bullpen so they can bring in a starting pitcher. Of those three, I see Silva as the most likely because of his age and injury concerns.

The first target in free agency to fill a rotation spot was Brandon Webb. He has since managed an outing where he topped 81 MPH and demanded a contract that rivals those of Rich Harden and Ben Sheets, ignoring that both of those pitchers were utter failures for Texas and Oakland, respectively. So, no Cliff Lee, no Brandon Webb. Where does that leave the market?

At a glance, the names that pop out are: Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Jorge De La Rosa. Taking Lilly back if he is offered arbitration would make little sense. It would mean giving up a draft pick to bring a player back that we clearly sold low on (Blake DeWitt was really the best we could get?). Harang is dead, no doubt about it. Vazquez would be Carlos Silva with more strikeouts. So, Jorge De La Rosa it is.

If this is the best the market has to offer, then the Cubs are in serious trouble. His 110 ERA+ was actually WORSE away from Coors Field. His K/9 drops from 9.5 to 6.9. His ERA rises from 4.10 to 4.36. His WHIP goes from 1.24 to 1.42. This is a 30-year-old whose 110 ERA+ has actually ranked as his best season in his career.

Now, after looking at the free agent market, I think it makes more sense to just let Carlos Silva get shelled rather than dish out money to watch someone else do it for him. So, does anyone have any ideas on trade options?

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One response

20 02 2011
George Huntington

How about Hank Borowy with Charlie Grimm playing first and managing at the same time!! (1945)

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