The Phillies Rotation Has Joined an Elite Group

Posted by Wilchiro

The Phillies rotation has joined an elite group of rotations, including the '97 Braves.

We all remember last December, one year and six days from today- December 16th, 2009. The mega blockbuster deal that stole the headlines, Roy Halladay to the Phillies with Cliff Lee heading to Seattle. It was amazing especially for a Seattle fan specifically because it came out of the blue, but it was also exciting for the typical Phillies fan… except for one part-they had to say goodbye to  Cliff Lee, certainly another elite starter. Things have changed, since that day. At the trade deadline, the Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt in a steal of a deal, and just recently, the Phillies brought in the King of the Crop-Cliff Lee.

If you didn’t think the Phillies could put up a fight before, they certainly can now. I remember a year or two back when I used wins to determine the strength of pitchers, but I have changed drastically since then… and the sabermetric world has as well. Luckily, we now have the stat “WAR”, otherwise known as Wins above Replacement to determine any players value. And according to this, the Phillies have now completed the impossible-they have joined an elite group of ten rotations in baseball history, each of which that have four pitchers with a four or more WAR. This list includes infamous rotations, such as the 1967 Cincinatti Reds (actually had five pitchers with a four or more WAR), the 1997 Atlanta Braves (yes, this is the rotation that consisted of Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz), the 1997 New York Yankees, the 1991 Atlanta Braves, the 1960 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1913 New York Giants, the 1912 Boston Red Sox, the 1912 Pittsburgh Pirates, the 1909 Philadelphia Phillies, and now this marvelous rotation.

Unfortunatly, Bill James has not come out with WAR projections, but the fans projections are all optimistic, perhaps overly optimistic. The lowest WAR out of Fans’ projections is Hamels, and even that is at a 4.3 mark.

There you have it. In a small but informative post, I hope you got a snapshot of just how dominate the Phillies rotation is.

Revisiting the Cliff Lee Deal: Part Two

Posted by Wilchiro

In part one of the Cliff Lee series, MagicSox reviewed the trade that sent Cliff Lee to Philadelphia along with Ben Francisco for prospects Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald. Over the course of the next few days, Teix will be reviewing the trade that sent Lee to Texas and landed him a World Series birth, but today I am here to revisit the trade that sent him to my favorite team, the Seattle

The trade in December of 2009 which sent Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners was truly a blessing from God.

 Mariners.

Last December, fans were preparing for a blockbuster Roy Halladay trade to the Yankees or Phillies, as he was beginning to become expensive for a young Toronto Blue Jays ballclub. Several weeks into the offseason, news came up that Roy Halladay was going to be shipped to Philadelphia. But thats not all. On that day, Cliff Lee was also dealt to the Mariners in a blockbuster four way deal involving the Phillies, Blue Jays, Mariners, and A’s. Fans from all around Seattle were going crazy, and fans from other teams were jealous. I remember coming home that day, and logging on to MLBTR like a normal, typical day, when suddenly I scroll down and see the Blessing from God. I was amazed. Many people were surprised that the Phillies didn’t keep Lee around for a perfect 1-2 punch rotation with Halladay and crew, but the Phillies front office had decided that they couldn’t afford the two. Here are the players in the deal, and the impact they have made for their ballclubs.

Going to the Phillies

SP Roy Halladay – Halladay was the major piece of the blockbuster deal. After a 17-10 record with an impressive ERA of 2.79 and an FIP of 3.06, it was obvious that the Blue Jays could not lock him up and give him the $20 million he was looking for. After several months stretching from the Trade Deadline to mid December 2009, the Jays finally found a new home for him, by trading him to the Philadelphia Phillies for three prospects. Since then Halladay has just been phenominal, with a 21-10 record on the season, with a 2.44 ERA and a 3.01 FIP, to go along with a perfect game and a brilliant no hitter in the playoffs, Halladay has been well worth that three year $60 million deal signed last year. He is a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award in 2010, being announced within the next couple of weeks.

OF Tyson Gillies – Currently in the Double-A Eastern league in Philadelphia’s minor league system, Gillies mightily struggled in 2010. Still considered a top 10 prospect in their system, Gillies played just 28 games this year for the Phillies due to several hamstring injuries. Some people say that his ceiling is Shane Victorino with a higher batting average, more walks, more steals, less HR’s, and not quite as good with the glove. If all goes well, Gillies could be Ibanez’s replacement for the 2012 season.

SP JC Ramirez – Also in the Double-A minors system for the Phillies, JC Ramirez has proven to be an average pitcher thus far. He hasn’t been dominant, but he’s been decent, as shown by a 7-7 record with a 4.82 ERA in Reading on the year. His absolute ceiling is a number three or four starter, but he will likely turn into a back-end reliever. A positive is his WHIP is 1.32 with no one on, but 1.15 with runners on base.

SP Phillipe Aumont – At the time, he was considered the main piece of the deal, but after a year in Class A he has ultimately fallen apart. He had a 3-11 record on the year with a 5.68 ERA and a .276 BAA. His 6.7 BB/9 is completely horrendous. Although the potential is there and he is still young at just 21, he will need a major bounceback season in order to be back in the Phillies future plans.

Going to the Jays

SP Kyle Drabek – Drabek was considered a must in the deal that sent Halladay to Philadelphia, and the Jays got their wish. Drabek is now a top 25 prospect throughout baseball, and that is well deserved. In 2010, he went 14-9 with a 2.94 ERA and 132 K’s in 162.0 IP. He looks very promising and many see him as a future top of the rotation ace. Expect him to join the Jays

Halladay was the centerpiece of a blockbuster four way deal in 2009.

 rotation as a regular starter in 2011.

1B Brett Wallace – After being shipped to Toronto in his second trade in a number of months, Brett Wallace has shown alot of promise. After an impressive 2010 season with a triple slash line of .301/.359/.509 in the minors, Brett Wallace was again dealt to the Houston Astros for outfielder Anthony Gose. Wallace could become the starting 1B for the Houston Astros in 2011.

C Travis D’Arnaud – The Phillies were reluctant to give this guy up as well. Even after a relatively solid season in Single-A Dunedin, there is no telling whether D’Arnaud will be up in the majors any time soon, as he is blocked by star catching prospect JP Arencibia. After a season in which he hit .259/.315/.411, there might be teams that draw interest in the young backstop this winter, if the Blue Jays decide to make him available.

Going to the Mariners

SP Cliff Lee – Let’s face it, this was a Christmas miracle. As the Mariners were doing anything they could to boost their roster and secure a playoff birth in 2010 (which ultimately didn’t happen), the Mariners found their guy. After a rather questionable trade by the Phillies, Cliff Lee had an awesome season for the Seattle M’s in 2010 before being dealt to the Texas Rangers at the deadline and landing a World Series birth. He had a 12-9 record, with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with 212.1 IP, despite being injured the whole month of April. This is a classy guy with alot of playoff experience, and will draw lots of interest for next year. He will make an impact on whatever team he decides to go to in the end.

Going to the A’s

OF Michael Taylor – Orginally traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in the three way deal, Taylor was immedietly dealt to the A’s shortly after

A 1-2 Punch of King Felix and Cliff Lee put a scare into the heart of opposing hitters for half of the 2010 season.

 the trade for Brett Wallace. This trade has panned out for Oakland, as Taylor is now a top 40 prospect throughout baseball. He slugged .272/.348/.392 with an OPS of .740 in 2010, as he also demonstrates good speed as shown by 16 SB. Taylor has alot of potential, and if all goes well he might be up in the majors by late 2011 or early 2012.

This is a trade that helped all four teams in some way. The Phils’ now have their ace locked up for the next two years, the Jays have three solid prospects who could potentially make an impact in 2011, the Mariners got a solid ace in Lee who made an excellent 1-2 punch with Felix Hernandez (without having to give up the world for him), and the A’s got Taylor who is a top 40 prospect throughout baseball and could potentially make a difference on the A’s starting roster for the next several years to come.

In Part three of the Cliff Lee series, Teix will be reviewing the blockbuster trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers and Justin Smoak to the Mariners at the Trade Deadline of 2010.

The Championship Series

Posted by Wilchiro

The Division Series was officially wrapped up yesterday with a Rangers 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees easily won their series with a three game sweep, as well as the Phillies with the Giants beating out the Braves in a four game series. We are now moving on to Level number two, the Championship Series, which kicks off at 8 ET Friday, with the New York Yankees taking on the Texas Rangers. The Phillies and Giants series will start up at 7:30 ET on Saturday. I just thought I would write a brief post reviewing pitching matchups and lineups, and making my picks to advance on to Level number three- the last level- the World Series.

Cliff Lee has played a huge part in the Rangers Playoff Success thus far.

On Friday evening, Cy Young candidate C.C. Sabathia will be taking the mound against youngster lefty C.J. Wilson. For casual fans, Sabathia posted an impressive 21 win mark on the season with a 3.18 ERA and 197 strikeouts. He posted an FIP of 3.54, a bit lower then his xFIP of 3.78. He was worth 5.1 WAR on the season and had a BABIP of .285. He has some postseason experience from the past, and with a strong Yankees offense behind him, expect him to be lights out in game one. CJ Wilson will be taking the ball for the Rangers in game one, as Cliff Lee was used to pitch the Rangers into the series. The pressure will be there, And I question whether he will be able to maintain his composure and pitch a quality game against the dreaded Bronx Bombers. Wilson posted a 15-8 record on the season and a 3.35 ERA. He lucked out a bit though, as shown by his FIP of 3.56, when his xFIP was all the way up at 4.20. Wilson will be pitching at home in Arlington Ballpark, so supposedly the offense will thrive.

Now on to the offense. These are two very good all around ballclubs. But the thing that really pushes these two over the top is the offense. This is the reason why they are the two best teams in the American League right now. The Yankees have the 3-4-5 of Teixera, A-Rod, Cano, while the Rangers have Hamilton, Big Bad Vlad, and Cruz. The Yankees will have Derek Jeter leading off, with the Rangers letting Elvis Andrus get things started. The Yankees have veteran Jorge Posada handle the catching duties, with Bengie Molina catching for the Rangers. These are two amazing lineups, and this will be a really, really fun series to watch. I think it’s up in the air concerning who will advance to the World Series.

The next series starting Saturday night is the Giants taking on the Phillies. San Francisco will send out “The Freak” to the mound to set the stage, with Roy Halladay going out for the Phillies. It doesn’t get much better then this, folks. This is a classic playoff pitching matchup. Tim Lincecum had a fantastic game against the Braves in game one, throwing a complete game shutout with an impressive fourteen strikeouts. Roy Halladay was even better then that in the Reds series. He was brilliant. He was dominant. He was basically perfect. Halladay threw the second ever playoff no hitter in game one, making history against the best offense in the MLB. Most people suspect he will win the Cy Young Award this year, posting 21 wins with an ERA of 2.44, an FIP of 3.01, and a WAR of 6.6. With Halladay, the Jays might have even had a legit shot at the AL East this year. Lincecum on the other hand had a down year, with a 16-10 record, an ERA of 3.43, and a WAR of 5.1, although FIP and xFIP suggests that he was somewhat unlucky on the year… his BABIP was relatively high. More or less, you can expect to see the typical Lincecum in game one of the NLCS…. dominance, dominance, dominance.

Brilliant. Dominant. Literally Perfect. That is what Roy Halladay was in game one of the NLDS.

On the other hand, these are two completely different offenses. The Phillies have a 3-4 of Howard, Utley, with even more protection of Rollins, Victorino, and Werth. Although Rollins and Utley have had drastically down years, the Phillies still own one of the best offenses in the buisness- they are a tough beat. Meanwhile, the Giants have had a better year offensively then 2009, but having a middle of the order of Huff and Posey doesn’t match up to the multiple threats of the Phillies lineup. We all know the Giants have the rotation to match up to the Phils, but do they have the neccesary offense to advance to the “Big Show?”

Yes, these teams will have question marks going into their Championship Series, but on the same token, these are four very respectable ballclubs… As for the question Who will advance to the Big Show, looks like we’ll just have to wait and see.

Doctober: This Toronto Fan’s Perspective

Posted by WAMCO:

“Bittersweet.”

Amongst many Blue Jays blogs and websites and comments, this is the word I am consistently seeing with regards to Roy Halladay’s 104-pitch no-hit masterpiece in his playoff debut. If you told me five years ago that he would have this type of performance in his first playoff game, I would have believed you. However, there are some things that would have seemed strange: He pitches for the Philadelphia Phillies. In the National League division series. Less than one year after he was traded away from Toronto.

“Bittersweet.”

As a lifelong Blue Jay fan, it is difficult to know how to react to a situation like this.

“Bittersweet.”

For many Toronto fans, it is bittersweet to see Doc Halladay succeed with the Phillies, and not their beloved Jays

Roy Halladay is a winner; there is no question about it. Whether he was receiving appropriate run support or not while he pitched for Toronto, he still won games, and still dominated most nights. As a starting pitcher, he has been above 5.0 in WAR seven times in his career. He has lead his league in complete games in six of the past eight years. His other numbers are well known; the dominant ERA, WHIP, etc. Even if you are partial to pitcher wins, he’s had over 16 wins in seven of the past nine years. He is the total package. Add to that his incredible work ethic, his contributions to the community, and his influence on his fellow pitchers, and you pretty much cannot dislike this man, unless you are in the unfortunate position of being in the batter’s box against him.

“Bittersweet.”

The Blue Jays could not put a team together to surpass New York, Boston, or (more recently) Tampa Bay during his time in Toronto. Halladay, on two occasions, signed under-market extensions with the Blue Jays in order to make it work there. The team could not get over the hump. Despite their best efforts, they fell short every year. The man that the late, great Tom Cheek christened as “Doc” Halladay did not pitch in a playoff game for Toronto.

“Bittersweet.”

Toronto fans are torn. Halladay did ask out, in the end. He knew he was running out of time, and needed to make a move. On the other hand, all of the good things Doc did in Toronto will stick with many fans. I know this fan was on the edge of his seat from the sixth inning on last night. I know this fan jumped when the final out was recorded. I know this fan had a tear in his eye. Even though it is too bad it didn’t happen in a Blue Jay uniform, this type of performance couldn’t have been turned in by a better man. Those who saw the game were witnesses to baseball history, Blue Jay fans or otherwise. From where I sit, that is the bottom line.

“Sweet.”