NL Silver Slugger Awards

Joey Votto was phenomenal for the Reds this year, and played a huge part in getting the Reds a playoff birth. He has a shot at winning this years NL MVP

Posted by Wilchiro

A couple of days ago, BaconSlayer09 talked about the American League Gold Glove awards, as the love affair with overrated shortstop Derek Jeter continues. Needless to say, many people believe that the Gold Glove Awards are just turning into jokes, as voters look are now turning to fame instead of using statistics to determine their votes. Today, I am going to be discussing the National League Silver Slugger Awards, and making my picks based on stats, not fame.

Catcher: Brian McCann (ATL) - McCann was arguably the second best catcher in baseball this season, and he well deserves this award. He had the highest overall WAR of 5.3 over every other NL catcher, to go along with more power, as he hit 21 homeruns and 77 RBIs. His triple slash line of .269/.375/.453 was also among the top in that category. Runner Ups: Carlos Ruiz (PHI), Buster Posey (SF), Geovany Soto (CHC).

First Base: Joey Votto (CIN) – You might be wowed to see that Albert Pujols is not my selection for this award, but he is not far behind. Votto led the league in WAR on the year with an impressive 7.4 mark, to go along with 37 homeruns and 113 RBIs. His triple slash line of .324/.424/.600 beat out Pujols in all three categories as well. Runner Ups: Albert Pujols (STL), Aubrey Huff (SF), Adrian Gonzalez (SD).

Second Base: Dan Uggla (FLA) – Although Dan Uggla did not lead the NL in WAR, he did lead all 2B in the league with 33 homeruns and 105 RBIs. His triple slash line of .287/.369/.508 was near the top in the league, as Uggla netted an All-Star appearence this summer. Even through all of the possible trade talk within the last few days, My pick is for Dan Uggla to win the 2B Silver Slugger in the National League. Runner Ups: Rickie Weeks (MIL), Brandon Phillips (CIN), Chase Utley (PHI).

Despite leading all NL 3B in WAR, Ryan Zimmerman did not land a spot in the All-Star game, though a Silver Slugger award is well deserved

Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – Although David Wright of the New York Mets could put up a debate for the award, my pick is for the young 3B of the Washington Nationals, Ryan Zimmerman. He led all 3B in the league with a 7.2 WAR, beating everyone by 2+ whole points in that category. After barely missing this years All-Star game, Zimmerman slugged 25 HR and 85 RBIs to go along with a slash line of .307/.388/.503. Runner Ups: David Wright (NYM), Scott Rolen (CIN), Placido Polanco (PHI).

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – This was another relatively easy pick. Many people thought that Hanley Ramirez could make a run for the award, but Tulo beat him by a landslide. After an electric September, “Tulo” finished with a .315/.381/.568 slash line, beating all shortstops in those categories. He also slugged 27 HRs and 95 RBIs on the season. Runner Ups: Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Stephen Drew (ARZ), Starlin Castro (CHC).

Left Field: Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – This was a tougher decision. I really that that Cards’ LF Matt Holliday could put up a strong case for the award, but after an abseulute break-out season, I have to give it to him. Afterall, he did slug 34 HRs with 117 RBIs, while maintaining a triple slash line of .336/.376/.598 to go along with it. Runner Ups: Matt Holliday (STL), Ryan Braun (MIL), Josh Willingham (WAS).

After suffering a month of injuries, Troy Tulowitzki was fantastic in September, slugging over half of his season total homeruns during that time

Center Field: Chris Young (ARZ) – Many people might question my pick for Chris Young, but I have my reasons. Many people might say that Torres, Rasmus, or McCutchen deserve the award, but all three relied on luck as opposed to skill for the majority of the season. Young posted a .296 BABIP, while Torres had a .331, Rasmus had a .354, and McCutchen had a .311. Young also had the highest amount of HRs in the league among CF’s  with 27, and the highest amount of RBI’s with 91. Runner Ups: Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Andres Torres (SF), Colby Rasmus (STL).

Right Field: Corey Hart (MIL) – Why not Jayson Werth, Jay Bruce, or Jason Heyward? I’ll tell you why. Hart posted more HRs and RBIs then any other RF in the league with 31 and 102, while maintaining a solid triple slash line of .283/.340/.525. He also relied on more skill as opposed to luck, posting a .324 BABIP on the year, down from Werth’s mark of .352, Bruce’s mark of .334, and Heyward’s mark of .335. Runner Ups: Jayson Werth (PHI), Jason Heyward (ATL), Jay Bruce (CIN).

Note: These predictions are not those of the Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors Writing Team. If you disagree with these rankings and are dissatisfied with them, please send all hate mail to Wilchiro.

The Little Prince of Milwaukee

Posted by Wilchiro

The “Little” Prince of Milwaukee will be a very hot topic around the MLB this offseason. He is still young at the age of 26, and is one of the biggest bats throughout Baseball. Perfect package, right? Not neccesarily.

Prince Fielder will likely be on the move this offseason

The Prince will be expecting a huge pay raise for 2011 and beyond, and the Brewers might not have the funds to give that money to him. One solution could be to shop him this offseason, and see if they can rebuild in both the Starting Pitching and Minors depth areas. In this post, I will be talking about who will be interested in Fielder, and what it will take to get him and lock him up for 2011 and beyond.

The Brewers have Mat Gamel to play 1B if Prince does indeed get traded… so receiving a 1B back in a trade isn’t neccesary. As mentioned above, they will be looking to improve in the Rotation and the Minors. The Rays could be the perfect trading partner, with alot of minor league pitching depth and a 1B slot to fill with Pena leaving to Free Agency. Wade Davis, Matt Moore, Jake McGee, and Alex Colome could all be available for the right price, and James Shields and Matt Garza could entice the Brew Crew as well. The Rockies may be in the mix as well. Todd Helton is nearing retirement and is injury prone, as shown by playing just 118 games on the year. Christian Friedrich, Tyler Matzek, and Jhouhyls Chacin are all pieces that the Brewers would love to have in a potential Prince deal. The White Sox will show interest again as they did in the recent trade deadline, but I question if they have the neccessary pieces outside of John Danks or Gavin Floyd to make a move, as Gordon Beckham is strictly off limits. Baltimore might have the talent to deal for Fielder, but do they have the cash to lock him up long term? The Giants might show interest, but Aubrey Huff has had a fantastic season and he would likely have to move to the outfield, and I wonder if the Giants would be willing to part with Jonathan Sanchez in a deal. The Angels could be interested, as a middle of the order lineup of Morales and Fielder would be frightening, and the Halos have the money to lock him up, but do they have the talent? Seattle will be interested, but I doubt that they are willing to part with the young talent.

Now comes the money part. Fielder will not come cheap, and some sources say that he could demand nearly $200 million, or Mark Teixera type money. Although he is younger, he can only provide the pop, and the defense is a problem as shown by a UZR of -7.4 on the year. If he truly demands that much money, he will be out of work unless he has a serious bounceback season. At the moment, I’d predict that he would get a Matt Holliday-esque deal, somewhere in the seven year $120 million pricerange. We know that the Brewers don’t have that kind of money, but out of the teams listed above, who could lock him up long term? Let’s take a look at the options.

Prince Fielder will likely net a Matt Holliday-esque deal in 2011

The Rays are probably not a fit. They want to cut payroll, and that has played a part in the loss of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Rafael Soriano. If the Brewers included a little bit of cash in the deal, something could be worked out. The Rockies could be an option, as soon alot of money will be coming off the books. The White Sox could work, if they are willing to give up the talent and take on a little bit of payroll, which they have the ability to do. The Giants are set with Aubrey Huff at 1B, and they don’t have much cap space, and are unlikely to give up the pieces to acquire Prince. The Angels would be a good fit if Prince is willing to DH and they are willing to gut the minors system. And while he would make a perfect DH for the offensive starved Mariners, are the M’s willing to part with one of the up and coming minors systems throughout baseball?

Although he had a relatively down year, Prince is a valuable piece, and many teams would be fortunate to have him. His .261 AVG isn’t too impressive, but his OBP of .401 and OPS of .871 are pluses. He also sported a wOBA of .380 and his power is legitimate. And that is why he is “The Little Prince of Milwaukee.”

2011: The Class of Carl Crawford

Posted by cubs223425

In the offseason following the Yankees’ return to the top of the baseball world, the free agent hitting class lacked a sort of pizzazz (or as the bland may call it, depth).  Granted, there were a few secondary names on the market (Jason Bay, Chone Figgins–both who have flamed out), along with a few surprises (Adrian Beltre’s remembering what sport this is, Marlon Byrd’s anti-Bradley impact). Whether you were in favor of the contract he got or not (I was not), Matt Holliday was the clear-cut prize among the free agent bats last winter.

Holliday turned a stellar stint with the Cardinals (168 OPS+) into a ludicrous 7-year deal worth $120 million guaranteed (that can become 8/$136 million). Maybe this deal doesn’t look so puzzling in a market other than this past one, but the man had one legitimate suitor that would realistically fork over the money. The St. Louis Cardinals paid a premium for a premium talent in a not-so-premium market. Many teams were unable to spend big money, and even fewer had a desire to spend that much money on Holliday. Now, this deal has set the table for the biggest free agent hitter on the market after the 2010 season, Carl Crawford.

Like Holliday, Crawford is an elite left fielder, with the only other left fielder that can hold his own with Crawford’s astounding numbers being Texas’ Josh Hamilton, who we have seen can get hurt or fall on his face almost at will. Unlike Holliday, Crawford is a top-of-the-order hitter with super-human speed and an even better glove (a +22.1 UZR this season). So, how will Crawford’s contract stack up to that of Matt Holliday? Well, let’s compare the two:

Matt Holliday: Holliday was originally seen as a product of Coors Field, and not a whole lot more. The rugged start to his tenure in Oakland did little to quell the naysayers, and he was sent packing to St. Louis for a package centered around Brett Wallace (who was then sent to Toronto, then to Houston). That’s when it all changed. His defense was kind of rough at times (see: 2009 playoffs, 2010 All-Star game), but his bat was unquestionably destructive. What he did for the RedBirds put most of his Colorado work to shame, blasting 13 homers and rounding almost as many bases in 63 games with St. Louis (142) as he did with Oakland in 93 games (157). His .353/.419/.604 slash was monstrous, good for a 1.023 OPS.

Thanks to a stellar second half after being traded to the Cardinals in 2009, Matt Holliday was able to score a mega deal with the Cardinals, despite being a part of a relatively weak free agent class.

Now, in 2010, his numbers have simmered. His 168 OPS+ has dropped to 139 (his 2009 total, near his 133 career OPS+). At the time, though, he did more than enough to earn the big bucks as a free agent, and he definitely squeezed the Cardinals (who still have to worry about the Pujols negotiation) for every penny.

Carl Crawford: Crawford has seen his overall numbers take a rather odd turn. His slugging is up .021 (.452 to .473), but his OBP is down .015 (.364 to .349), meaning just a .006 rise in OPS+. But one must also account for the fact that his team has been on the losing end of 2 no-hitters this season, along with the league-wide dominance of pitchers this season. Now, that Crawford’s numbers have changed is not so much odd as that a #2 hitter is putting more over the wall and stealing fewer bases (though he’s still on a 162-game pace of 53.3).

According to UZR, Carl Crawford is the best defensive player in all of baseball.

Crawford has kept one thing consistent, though–his stellar defense. He is by far the best fielder in the game this season, with a +22.1 UZR (yes, that’s his UZR, not his UZR/150!). It is a 9.3 drop to second place, which belongs to Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce. The second-highest UZR among left fielder is an enormous drop to Juan Pierre’s +9.4 (a 12.7 drop). So, his UZR doubles that of the next-closest competition in left.

Where does all of this put Crawford in terms of a payday? It can be hard to say.

On one hand, you can argue that his bat doesn’t qualify him for as big of a payday as Holliday got. While the latter has a career 133 OPS+, Crawford’s got a somewhat surprisingly low 105 OPS+ for his career (though it sits at 120 this season). His place in the batting order does keep him from hitting in a lot of RBI situations, but he scores a lot of runs.

On the flip side, you have easily the best position player on the market. It just so happens he is the best fielder in baseball as well. You are getting an elite defender and base stealer, and while he may not be the masher Holliday is, he fits into either the 1- or 2-hole just fine, due to a high batting average, OBP, and buckets of steals. Either way, what he brings to the table is not the only deciding factor.

Last offseason, Holliday was it. Sure, you had Jason Bay there as well, but he was older, on bad knees, and a butcher in the field (that was masked by the Green Moster, which kept his lack of range from showing). After those two, you were staring into the abyss of Mark DeRosa and Mike Cameron, two players that have fallen well short of expectations. Now, after the 2010 season, the options are much better.

Crawford is still the cream of the crop, but you take a look immediately down, and you still have a dangerous Jayson Werth as a more than capable consolation prize. Even the next tier in this class is better. Some of the other outfielders available include Manny Ramirez, Aubrey Huff, Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez (who was hitting well before injury), Austin Kearns, and Jose Guillen. This crop of talent could keep Crawford from getting an insane deal, as could teams’ unwillingness to spend big like in the past. But with these added free agents comes an added need to fill those spots, and the list of suitors for Crawford is long.

Yankees: They always have money, even when you think they don’t.

Rays: Who know? Maybe they actually give out a big contract for once, since they are slashing Pena’s money from the payroll.

Angels: Seen as the favorite to sign him in many circles, even with Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu there, plus the up-and-coming Peter Bourjos.

Red Sox: Mike Cameron hasn’t worked out, and Mike Lowell and David Ortiz could both be off of the books

Those are just the beginning. All of these things–his production, Holliday’s production, the production of other free agents, money, and need–are all major factors in this contract. What will he get? Who knows? What should he get? I have a reasonable idea.

If I am Crawford, I do not even consider taking less money than Holliday. With so many big market teams in the hunt for him (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels), Crawford should not be afraid to call a team’s bluff. Even if he were to do so and strike out with one, you have at least two other teams with deep pockets to go to.

To be more specific, I think he should start at one of three places:

1. Take Holliday’s deal, and add $1 million on for each of the seven season, plus the option year and buyout. This takes the deal to 7 years at $18 million annually, plus another $18 million option for 2018, with a $2 million buyout. So, this adds up to a deal worth $128 million guaranteed, which is fair if you consider Holliday got near that in a relatively barren market. Otherwise:

2. Take the same deal as Holliday–including the $17 million annual salary–and tack on another year. Make it a deal with eight guaranteed years and an option for a ninth.  The deal is guaranteed eight years and $137 million, with the potential for nine years and $153 million. What’s behind door number 3?

3. Keep the same deal as option two, but without the option year. It is still a solid eight years and $136 million, more than enough to feed his family.

Crawford’s camp likely would want the second option, because it guarantees the most money, but teams would likely prefer the first option, because it contains the least amount of money. So, take the middle ground and choose option three. The team gets a good hitter, a great runner, and a transcendent fielder, and Crawford gets the biggest deal any outfielder will be offered in free agency for a while.

So, there it is–my first topic covered and a way Crawford gets the cheddar he deserves.