The New Orioles

Posted by Brady

In 2010, the Baltimore Orioles had an infield that consisted of Ty Wiggington, Brian Roberts, Ceaser Izturis, Matt Weiters, and Miguel Tejada. And an outfield that consisted of Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis. Luke Scott was the DH. Save for Roberts and Weiters, that whole infield is gone. Derrek Lee will be at first, J.J. Hardy at short, and Mark Reynolds at third. Nick Markakis is still in right, and Adam Jones is still in center. Pie will go to the bench, to the minors, or be moved, because Luke Scott needs to play somewhere, since Vladimir Guerrero is now the new Orioles DH. Buck Showalter has an offense. A ridiculously good offense.

Last season, Baltimore finished in 5th place in the AL East, and they scored 650 runs. They were 27th in runs scored, 20th in total bases, 24th in OBP….they were terrible. Just awful. They didn’t rank in the top half in any offensive category. But what about in 2011? The answer is in the new guys. Hardy, Lee, Guerrero, and Reynolds.

J.J. Hardy is slightly under a league average hitter with an OPS+ of 95. And he seems to have completely lost his home run power stroke going from 24 home runs in 2008, and 17 in 2009 and 2010 combined. His ISO in 2008 was .195 and in 2009 and 2010 it was .128 and .126 respectively. But what value does Hardy bring? It’s mostly in his glove. He put up a UZR of 8.1. Ranking behind Brendan Ryan, Alexi Ramirez, Cliff Pennington, and Stephen Drew in that category. Baltimore’s SS last year? Cesar Izturis put up a UZR of 5.1 . So, how big of an upgrade is it really? Izturis had an OPS+ of 50.

When Reynolds does get a hold of one, it is going over the fence. Hopefully Buck Showalter's staff will help him put more of them in play.

Mark Reynolds is the new Orioles 3rd baseman. We all know the knocks on him. He’s struck out 767 times in 2285 plate appearances, over 563 games. Including 200 times in the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Reggie Jackson, the all time leader in getting struck out, never struck out 200 times in a season. It wasn’t until Jackson’s 6th season that he had reached Reynold’s pace. But what can he do right? Well, he is the proud owner of a career .241 ISO, and his mark last year of .234 had him in the top 20 in all of Major League Baseball last season. When Reynolds does get a hold of one, it is going over the fence. Hopefully Buck Showalter’s staff will help him put more of them in play. He’ll also need help with the glove, seeing as how he has a career -19 UZR.

Derrek Lee is now manning first base for the O’s. What is there to say about Lee that isn’t awesome? He has a .282/.367/.498 career line with a career  7.3 UZR.

As was the case with Derrek Lee, the same basic thing applies with Vladimir Guerrero. .320/.383/.567  over a 16 year career.

This future Hall of Famer has never seen a pitch he didn't like.

I once saw him hit pitch that bounced in front of him against the wall for a double. He’s big, he’s strong, and he hits it where he wants to hit it. Some people say he was the best free agent signing of the 2010 off season (though I say Jim Thome was),  and he’ll certainly be able to help this new Orioles team maybe break .500.

The AL East Has Shifted Gears

Posted by Wilchiro

We all know that the New York Yankees have been successful for as long as they have been a franchise. We all have heard of the infamous Yankees-Red Sox rivalry that will live on forever. We know that in recent years, the Rays have built up one of the best farm systems in baseball, therefore leading to success. We know that the Jays have always been in the mix, but never finished on top. And, well, we all know about the Orioles.

When studying the statistics, Derek Jeter wouldn't have scored a mega-deal on the open market.

But this year, it’s a different story. You might be surprised to hear that the Yankees might not neccesarily be on top. The Rays might not make the playoffs. The Blue Jays might have a chance at their destiny. This is likely all new to you’re ears.

Entering the offseason, the Yankees had three tasks ahead of them-Andy Pettite, Cliff Lee, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter. It was evident that the later two were locks to come back, and it was almost a lock that Cliff Lee would wear pinstripes in 2011. But in a strange twist in fate, the Yankees offseason went downhill. After long and hard talks, the Yankees inked Derek Jeter to a dreadful overpay. They watched as Andy Pettite acknowledged his retirement, and then watched Cliff Lee join the Philadelphia Phillies. It is assumed that the Yankees just won’t be the team that they were thought to be in 2011.

Meanwhile, the Rays had it all worse. Remember the core of the franchise? David Price, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and Carlos Pena? Well, half of those guys have packed their bags. Crawford joined big-time rival Boston Red Sox on a seven year deal, with Pena joining the Chicago Cubs to man 1B. The Rays also missed out on Joaquin Benoit and Rafael Soriano among others, making them arguably the biggest losers of the offseason. They added little to the team to make up for these losses, and their are swirling questions to wheather or not they can even contend in 2011. It looks like the Rays will have to re-start their project of building up the farm.

Carl Crawford was the king of the crop for this year's free agent market.

The Orioles have made it clear that they are not re-building. They immediatly went out and knabbed Mark Reynolds in exhange for young pitcher David Hernandez and a prospect. Despite the loss of ace Kevin Millwood, this is a positive change for the O’s, as it adds alot of pop to their lineup. With a middle of the order consisting of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Mark Reynolds, I think that it’s okay to assume that the Orioles are a better team entering Opening Day. Not a division contender, but certainly one in the future.

The Jays off-season is questionable-are they re-building? After a solid 2010 campaign that saw them win upwards of 80 games, the Jays sold off ace Shaun Marcum in exchange for young 2B prospect Brett Lawrie. And after watching Lyle Overbay walk in free agency, the Blue Jays must find their new 1B. Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche are both upgrades, and could strive in the hitter’s paradise in the Rogers Centre. It seems to me that the Blue Jays are eyeing now and the future, but expecting to compete with the Red Sox is going to be tough.

And last but certainly not least-actually the best-the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox went out this offseason and made it known that they were not afraid to spend money. They traded Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and a PTBNL for Adrian Gonzalez, inked Carl Crawford to a seven year deal, and signed some relievers in Matt Albers and Dan Wheeler to bolster their bullpen. And with Kolbrin Vitek, Anthony Ranaudo, Bryce Brentz, Jose Inglesias, and Lars Anderson still in the minors, with one of the best major league core’s in the game, the Red Sox are simply the best team in the AL East, and the best team in baseball, for that matter. I guess you can expect for that to happen when you are basically given upwards of $200MM to spend before the whole off-season is even all said and done (Adrian Gonzalez’s likely spring contract was configured into that amount).

Mark Reynolds is a nice addition to a young Orioles lineup.

So now with the rundown, I have some projections-here they are.

1. Boston Red Sox-Solid rotation led by Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and the best lineup in baseball. They are a much improved team from 2010.

2. New York Yankees-Although doing little to improve, the Yankees are the Yankees, period. They arguably lossed little to nothing, as Pettite likely has little left to offer from the tank.

3. Tampa Bay Rays-Even with the sudden drop-off, the Rays are still a solid ballclub. They have a solid core of Evan Longoria and David Price, and with one of the most depthiest minors systems in the majors, the Rays will be good again in no time.

4. Toronto Blue Jays-I predict that they will be good, just not as good as the teams listed above. If they ride Hill out and deal him at the deadline, Lawrie will get some playing time and we’ll see what he has to offer. Again, they need a 1B.

5. Baltimore Orioles-The O’s improved, but not enough to make them a legit threat as a playoff contender in 2011. Reynolds was a solid deal and they are making a step in the right direction.

All of these teams are ballclubs with considerable upside. This has always been the case for the Yankees and the Red Sox, and as long as they keep winning, it always will. The Rays continue to stack up on the young talent with the low payroll. The Blue Jays are decent, but are struggling to get to the top. And the O’s are turning into the Rays 2.0.

If you would like to make you’re own personal projections for the AL East, post in the comments. This is going to be one fantastic division to watch this year.

Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum: Should They Really be Pitching in Game one of the World Series?

Posted by Wilchiro (This article was written on October 27th as the game was in progress)

It was foolish of GM Bill Bavasi to choose Brandon Morrow ahead of 'The Freak' in the 2006 Amateur Draft

As the World Series kicks off tonight with one of the best pitching matchups in baseball history, Cliff Lee verses Tim Lincecum, a question continues to swirl through my mind. Should Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum really be pitching in game one of the World Series? In fact, should they even be pitching right now for their respective ballclubs? Call me crazy, but this is a legitimate question, and in this post, I am going to tell you why.

We all know that in mid December of last year, Cliff Lee was traded to the Mariners in a blockbuster deal that netted the Phillies Roy Halladay, and the Blue Jays Kyle Drabek and Brett Wallace. Fans were going crazy. This was the perfect addition to add to newly acquired Chone Figgins, the best 3B on the free agent market entering the offseason. Many people were thinking that this was the perfect recipe to a playoff birth in 2010. They were wrong. The Mariners quickly began to fall out of it with a lack of a solid offense, and soon came selling mode. On July 9th of 2010, All-Star pitcher Cliff Lee was traded to the Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, and two other prospects.

Now for a moment, let’s flashback to the 2006 MLB amateur draft, shall we? With the fifth pick in the the draft, GM at the time, Bill Bavasi opted to take pitcher Brandon Morrow of the University of California. Boy, was that a mistake. The Giants would later take star pitcher Tim Lincecum, out of Washington University, with the tenth pick of the draft. In fact, Tim Lincecum is not just a star now, he has won two Cy Young Awards, and has led his team to the Giants first World Series birth in eight years. Brandon Morrow did not pan out for the Mariners, and was traded to the Blue Jays in the offseason of 2009 for relief pitcher Brandon League and a low level minors prospect.

Imagine this for a second- A rotation of King Felix, Tim Lincecum, and Cliff Lee. If that is not the best rotation in baseball history, it’s certainly close. That rotation would have easily landed the M’s in the playoffs in 2009, even without a good offense. That rotation might have even affected today’s World Series matchup. That rotation would have dominated all of baseball.

Bavasi opted to take catcher Jeff Clement ahead of stars such as Ryan Braun in the 2005 Amateur draft

But what angers me is that none of this is the case. And it’s not just Lincecum that Bavasi passed on. In the 2005 draft, the M’s took catcher Jeff Clement, passing on present stars Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Ricky Romero, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Colby Rasmus. In 2007, the Mariners took Phillippe Aumont, passing on young Braves phenom Jason Heyward. The lack of a quality ownership squad ruined the Mariners the chances at a golden oppurtunity to become a great team for many years to come.

Now, I know that the Mariners were in the basement in the AL West in 2010, but how much better could they be right now with that kind of a rotation? Felix had a down season for his standards as most fans would say, but that isn’t neccesarily the case. Even though he posted a low win total of thirteen, he still posted a 2.27 ERA, a 3.04 FIP which is down from his xFIP of 3.26, a K/9 of 8.36 and 232 strikeouts on the season. Another reason why his win total is considerably low is because of the lack of a solid offense. The Mariners scored just 513 runs on the season, by far the worst in baseball. Some people say that he only had a good year because of limited pressure, but that wasn’t neccesarily the case last year. That wasn’t the case when Zack Greinke won his Cy Young in 2009, either.

A rotation of Felix, Lincecum, and Lee would have been among the best in baseball history

Same is the case for Cliff Lee as it was for King Felix- A lack of wins. Cliff Lee was injured the whole first month of the season, which hurt his chances at a Cy Young award, even though he still managed to finish in the top five in innings pitched. He had twelve wins on the season, but an impressive ERA of 3.18 pitching in both Seattle and Texas. According to more advanced metrics, he deserved better due to a a 2.58 FIP. But the amazing thing about Lee is his K/9 to BB/9 ratio. He walked just 18 batters on the year, with 185 strikeouts.

Tim Lincecum had his typical good year. He posted sixteen wins on the year, with an ERA of 3.43, and an FIP of 3.15, relatively par with his xFIP of 3.21. His K/9 rate was close to ten at 9.79, but his BB/9 rate was high at 3.22 and his HR/9 was much higher then his normal number at 0.76. The support of a much better offense definatly helped, though.

I don’t know. Maybe I’m just dreaming. But think about how many critical errors the M’s orginization has made to lead to a losing ballclub. It not only angers myself, it angers thousands of other Mariners fans, that now have to experience rebuilding mode, once again.

Although I wish dearly that Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum were on my team right now, I will be rooting and cheering them both on throughout this 2010 World Series.