Revisiting the Cliff Lee Trade: Part Three

Posted by Teix4MVP

So as Wilchiro and MagicSox have already told you, Cliff Lee has been traded along for prospects and whatnot, and he has performed well everywhere he went, whether it be in Philly or Seattle, or Cleveland. After the addition of Lee to the Mariners, many picked them to win the AL West. However, when the Mariners were quickly smacked out of contention, they decided to trade their second ace, who they would lose to free agency after the season.

It was hard to see Lee go, but M's fans knew it was all for the good.

At first, it looked like the Yankees were going to get him (I remember refreshing the website MLB Trade Rumors every 10-20 minutes just to see if they’d get a deal done) with a package centered around top 5 prospect, catcher Jesus Montero. The deal looked done; that is, until the Mariners opened up conversations with the Rangers again after they apparently didn’t like the package that also included prospect David Adams and probably Zach McAllister (who was later dealt for Austin Kearns) and liked a package centered around Justin Smoak more, along with guys like Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson, and of course, the now-infamous Josh Lueke. They made the deal, sending Lee (and an out-for-the-season Mark Lowe) to the Rangers on July 9th, So, I’m going to break down the players as they’ve progressed through this year. Let’s start with the player(s) the Rangers got.

The Texas Rangers received:

Cliff Lee (and cash)

The 32-year-old Cliff Lee didn’t perform as well as expected in Texas. He went 4-6, had a 3.98 ERA, and saw his WHIP jump to 1.058 from .945.  His BB/9 went from .5 to 1.0, and his SO/BB dropped from a godly 14.83 to 8.00. His September was pretty good, as he went 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA, but in August he went 1-4 and had a 6.35 ERA. He was a great clubhouse presence for the upstart Rangers, and he led them straight to the World Series in the Playoffs. He defeated two of the best offenses in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees, easily, giving up just 2 ERs in 24 innings pitched. He allowed just 14 baserunners (he had just one walk allowed) and he struck out 34 batters. And just like that, Lee and the Rangers had reached the World Series, the first the franchise had reached against the San Francisco Giants. The Rangers looked like the favorites to many, particularly because of their ace, Clifford Phifer Lee, and he was starting Game 1. He was 7-0 in his career during the playoffs, and he looked to improve to 8-0 against the Giants hitters, who didn’t have a 30 HR guy.

Or a 100-RBI guy.

Or even a 90-RBI guy.

They DID end up showing Cliff Lee what it was like to lose, actually handing him 2 losses and a 6.94 ERA. He had an over 10 WHIP, compared to a .375 WHIP against the Yankees and a .688 against the Rays. And just like that, the Rangers had lost their first World Series, and their ace was sent towards his first huge payday and a decision of what team to join next season.

Mark Lowe

This was an interesting addition to the trade. Lowe was out for the season with a back surgery, but managed to make it back at the very end of the regular season, pitching in 3 games but had a 12.00 ERA. In the postseason, he pitched in 2 games, and gave up 5 earned runs. At age 27, he isn’t a prospect player, so he was included in the deal as a probable throw-in, although the Rangers want him. He’s arbitration-eligible, so look for him to  be in the Rangers plans for 2011.

Mark Lowe has a fastball that reaches 100 MPH at times, and he could be an elite pitcher in the Texas bullpen in 2011.

The Rangers’ GM Daniels was widely praised for making this deal, as he greatly improved his team’s chances to make it to the playoffs but also did it without giving up any of his blue chip minors prospects. Lee was the obvious prize of the trade, but look for Lowe next season, as he’s one year removed from 75 appearances and a 3.26 ERA, although that should go up due to the park he’s now pitching in. The Rangers have the financial flexibility to sign the best free agent this year’s class has to offer, although the offer has to stack up against those of the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers, among others. The Rangers do have an edge in the Lee negotiations, however, as Texas is close to his Arkansas home. Whoever signs Lee will get an immediate impact pitcher.

Let’s move on to the M’s part of the deal, starting with the centerpiece, rookie first baseman…

Justin Smoak

Smoak came up to replace the struggling Chris Davis at first base on April 22. He struggled in his time with the Rangers, having a slashline of .209/.316/.353, which wasn’t much better than Davis’s mark of .192/.279/.292. But this does not take away from Smoak’s potential. Smoak was a top fifteen prospect entering the season, rated by Baseball America and MLB Network. He has a solid glove at 1B as evident by a UZR of 2.2, and has drawn comparisions to stars such as Mark Teixeira and Lance Berkman in the past. This guy looks like the real deal.

Josh Lueke

Lueke shows a ton of potential and this is shown by an impressive year, going 5-2 with a 1.86 ERA in 50 games. He posted alot more K’s then he pitched innings, and he will likely be utilized in the Mariners bullpen entering the 2011 season. When acquired, the Mariners were not aware of previous problems with rape, and that is why they have begun to dangle him on the trade market.

Blake Beavan

Justin Smoak was the centerpiece of the Lee deal. He has drawn comparisions to Teixeira and Berkman.

Blake Beavan is a solid piece. At 6’7″ 250 pounds, Beavan posted great numbers in three levels with Texas and Seattle this year, going 14-8 with a 3.90 ERA in 168.1 IP. It doesn’t seem like he blows anyone away with just 101 K’s on the season, but this shouldn’t be an issue as long as he is getting the outs. Beavan is currently in AAA Tacoma, and could fight for a spot in the rotation out of Spring Training, depending on the health status of recently re-signed lefty Erik Bedard.

Matthew Lawson

Lawson was essentially a throw-in piece who likely won’t play a huge part in the Mariners future plans, and will likely be used as trade bait, as he is blocked by stud prospects Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager. He did post decent stats on the year, though, hitting .293/.372/.439 with a solid OPS of .815.

Although it was hard for Mariners fans to see Lee go after such a great offseason followed by a solid 2009, it was evident that a trade was on the way. Jack Zduriencik likely got a maximum return for the lefty, considering the status of his contract and the demands for his salary. This was a trade that worked perfectly for both sides; the Rangers got one of the best pitchers in baseball in Lee who eventually led them in their surge to the World Series, with a fireball arm in Lowe who has a shot as the closer slot if Feliz becomes a starter in 2011. The Mariners got their future 1B in Smoak who fits perfectly with their plans with his left handed bat, solid glove and marginal power, a couple of solid bullpen arms in Lueke and Beavan, and a young 2B in Lawson. This trade was a win-win for both sides.

Revisiting the Cliff Lee Deal: Part Two

Posted by Wilchiro

In part one of the Cliff Lee series, MagicSox reviewed the trade that sent Cliff Lee to Philadelphia along with Ben Francisco for prospects Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald. Over the course of the next few days, Teix will be reviewing the trade that sent Lee to Texas and landed him a World Series birth, but today I am here to revisit the trade that sent him to my favorite team, the Seattle

The trade in December of 2009 which sent Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners was truly a blessing from God.

 Mariners.

Last December, fans were preparing for a blockbuster Roy Halladay trade to the Yankees or Phillies, as he was beginning to become expensive for a young Toronto Blue Jays ballclub. Several weeks into the offseason, news came up that Roy Halladay was going to be shipped to Philadelphia. But thats not all. On that day, Cliff Lee was also dealt to the Mariners in a blockbuster four way deal involving the Phillies, Blue Jays, Mariners, and A’s. Fans from all around Seattle were going crazy, and fans from other teams were jealous. I remember coming home that day, and logging on to MLBTR like a normal, typical day, when suddenly I scroll down and see the Blessing from God. I was amazed. Many people were surprised that the Phillies didn’t keep Lee around for a perfect 1-2 punch rotation with Halladay and crew, but the Phillies front office had decided that they couldn’t afford the two. Here are the players in the deal, and the impact they have made for their ballclubs.

Going to the Phillies

SP Roy Halladay – Halladay was the major piece of the blockbuster deal. After a 17-10 record with an impressive ERA of 2.79 and an FIP of 3.06, it was obvious that the Blue Jays could not lock him up and give him the $20 million he was looking for. After several months stretching from the Trade Deadline to mid December 2009, the Jays finally found a new home for him, by trading him to the Philadelphia Phillies for three prospects. Since then Halladay has just been phenominal, with a 21-10 record on the season, with a 2.44 ERA and a 3.01 FIP, to go along with a perfect game and a brilliant no hitter in the playoffs, Halladay has been well worth that three year $60 million deal signed last year. He is a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award in 2010, being announced within the next couple of weeks.

OF Tyson Gillies – Currently in the Double-A Eastern league in Philadelphia’s minor league system, Gillies mightily struggled in 2010. Still considered a top 10 prospect in their system, Gillies played just 28 games this year for the Phillies due to several hamstring injuries. Some people say that his ceiling is Shane Victorino with a higher batting average, more walks, more steals, less HR’s, and not quite as good with the glove. If all goes well, Gillies could be Ibanez’s replacement for the 2012 season.

SP JC Ramirez – Also in the Double-A minors system for the Phillies, JC Ramirez has proven to be an average pitcher thus far. He hasn’t been dominant, but he’s been decent, as shown by a 7-7 record with a 4.82 ERA in Reading on the year. His absolute ceiling is a number three or four starter, but he will likely turn into a back-end reliever. A positive is his WHIP is 1.32 with no one on, but 1.15 with runners on base.

SP Phillipe Aumont – At the time, he was considered the main piece of the deal, but after a year in Class A he has ultimately fallen apart. He had a 3-11 record on the year with a 5.68 ERA and a .276 BAA. His 6.7 BB/9 is completely horrendous. Although the potential is there and he is still young at just 21, he will need a major bounceback season in order to be back in the Phillies future plans.

Going to the Jays

SP Kyle Drabek – Drabek was considered a must in the deal that sent Halladay to Philadelphia, and the Jays got their wish. Drabek is now a top 25 prospect throughout baseball, and that is well deserved. In 2010, he went 14-9 with a 2.94 ERA and 132 K’s in 162.0 IP. He looks very promising and many see him as a future top of the rotation ace. Expect him to join the Jays

Halladay was the centerpiece of a blockbuster four way deal in 2009.

 rotation as a regular starter in 2011.

1B Brett Wallace – After being shipped to Toronto in his second trade in a number of months, Brett Wallace has shown alot of promise. After an impressive 2010 season with a triple slash line of .301/.359/.509 in the minors, Brett Wallace was again dealt to the Houston Astros for outfielder Anthony Gose. Wallace could become the starting 1B for the Houston Astros in 2011.

C Travis D’Arnaud – The Phillies were reluctant to give this guy up as well. Even after a relatively solid season in Single-A Dunedin, there is no telling whether D’Arnaud will be up in the majors any time soon, as he is blocked by star catching prospect JP Arencibia. After a season in which he hit .259/.315/.411, there might be teams that draw interest in the young backstop this winter, if the Blue Jays decide to make him available.

Going to the Mariners

SP Cliff Lee – Let’s face it, this was a Christmas miracle. As the Mariners were doing anything they could to boost their roster and secure a playoff birth in 2010 (which ultimately didn’t happen), the Mariners found their guy. After a rather questionable trade by the Phillies, Cliff Lee had an awesome season for the Seattle M’s in 2010 before being dealt to the Texas Rangers at the deadline and landing a World Series birth. He had a 12-9 record, with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with 212.1 IP, despite being injured the whole month of April. This is a classy guy with alot of playoff experience, and will draw lots of interest for next year. He will make an impact on whatever team he decides to go to in the end.

Going to the A’s

OF Michael Taylor – Orginally traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in the three way deal, Taylor was immedietly dealt to the A’s shortly after

A 1-2 Punch of King Felix and Cliff Lee put a scare into the heart of opposing hitters for half of the 2010 season.

 the trade for Brett Wallace. This trade has panned out for Oakland, as Taylor is now a top 40 prospect throughout baseball. He slugged .272/.348/.392 with an OPS of .740 in 2010, as he also demonstrates good speed as shown by 16 SB. Taylor has alot of potential, and if all goes well he might be up in the majors by late 2011 or early 2012.

This is a trade that helped all four teams in some way. The Phils’ now have their ace locked up for the next two years, the Jays have three solid prospects who could potentially make an impact in 2011, the Mariners got a solid ace in Lee who made an excellent 1-2 punch with Felix Hernandez (without having to give up the world for him), and the A’s got Taylor who is a top 40 prospect throughout baseball and could potentially make a difference on the A’s starting roster for the next several years to come.

In Part three of the Cliff Lee series, Teix will be reviewing the blockbuster trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers and Justin Smoak to the Mariners at the Trade Deadline of 2010.

Seattle Mariners: 2011 Lineup

Posted by Wilchiro

Coming into the season, the Mariners were favorites by many to win the American League West. They brought in Cliff Lee in a brilliant trade. They signed Chone Figgins to four year deal. They traded Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley. Jack Zduriencik had created a masterpiece of the Seattle Mariners, and the fans were hopeful. Until April. The Mariners started to lose, lose, and lose. By May, the Mariners were already dead last in the division. And in July, Cliff Lee was traded to the division rival Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, and two other prospects. Although things are currently pretty gloomy in Seattle right now, that can not hold the Mariners back from being a playoff contender in the near future.

Catcher is a bit of an issue. Rob Johnson is not a fit for the ballclub, as shown by his .191/.293/.574 splits, and terrible defense. Adam Moore has struggled as shown by an even worse slash line of .169/.199/.459. Now, I know that this is a rebuilding phase and the Mariners need to give some of the youngsters some playing time, but these young guys could use a little more seasoning in the minors before a full-time job in the big show. I say go out and sign an experienced catcher to a one year deal (Bengie Molina, John Buck), as a mentor for some of these young guys. If the M’s are out of it by the trade deadline, use them as trade bait.

First Base should be covered. Justin Smoak should receive the duties as the Full-Time First Basemen.

Justin Smoak could be a legitimate power threat for many years to come.

He has put up relatively good numbers in the minors this year, and if he can translate that success to the majors, he could be an impact middle of the order bat for many years to come. Reassign Russell Branyan to DH.

For now, Second Base should be covered by Chone Figgins. If Ackley is ready by midseason, trade one of Figgins/Lopez for a prospect or two. Figgins can be a solid top of the order bat when healthy, and according to Fangraphs Jose Lopez has been pretty unlucky as shown by a .250 BABIP. These two could make an impact on a playoff contender in 2011.

Keep one of Figgins/Lopez to man 3B. Lopez has had a great defensive year at 3B, but Figgins has a history of being a great 3B, and a move from Second to Third could be just what he needs to get [somewhat] back on track.

Jack Wilson should be the starting SS in 2011. His offensive and defensive numbers both aren’t too impressive, but there really is no better alternative. If he can regroup from injuries and return to his form from past years, he will be fine at SS. Not the best bat in the world, but he’ll get the job done.

The Left Field job should go to Michael Saunders, but Matt Tuiasosopo and Greg Halman could make cases for the spot. Expect Milton Bradley to be traded, DFA’D, or released. Saunders has posted better numbers, and 2011 will be an experiment year. He is still just 23 years old, and it wouldn’t hurt too see what he could do manning a full time job in LF in 2011.

Center Field is Franklin Gutierrez’s job. He is an excellent CF as shown by a 10.0 UZR/150, and sadly he will probably be the Mariners biggest power threat in 2011. He is entering his prime at 28, and BABIP suggests that he has been relatively unlucky this year with a

Franklin Gutierrez has been excellent in CF for the Mariners.

.301 Batting Average on Balls in Play.We’ll just have to wait and see.

Without question, Ichiro Suzuki will be the starting Right Fielder in 2011. He has shown some signs of regression, but you can expect the typical .300 average, 200 hit season again next year. He still has one of the better gloves in baseball as shown by a 12.0 UZR/150, and he does have legit speed of 41 stolen bases, so expect another good year out of Ichiro next year.

Felix will definatly be the Ace of the 2011 rotation. You can make pretty safe bets that Fister and Vargas will be the number 4 and 5 guys, and Michael Pineda, currently in AAA Tacoma could possibly earn the Number 3 spot. As for the Number 2 spot,

Michael Pineda could make a case for the number three spot in the Mariners rotation in 2011.

I say go out and sign an experienced Starting Pitcher who can be a mentor to some of the young guys at a cheap price (Harang, Webb, Arroyo, Garland, Bedard).

Now, I hate saying this, but this is probably a year in which the Mariners will not contend. But giving some of these young guys some playing time, could lead to success in the 2012 season and beyond.