The Mariners Shouldn’t Rebuild

Posted by Wilchiro

“I dream of putting the Mariners in the playoffs.”

Those are the words of Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez after winning the American League Cy Young in mid-November. And this brought up many very interesting points in my head.

There are only two teams currently in baseball that have never won a World Series: The Washington Nationals, and the Seattle Mariners. Since 2002, the Mariners have been an average team overall, respectively. Definitely nothing huge. Not one playoff appearence since that magical 2001 season in which the M’s won 116 games, tieing the all-time record with the Chicago Cubs. Seriously, what is the reasoning for this?

King Felix's hope is to bring a playoff birth to Seattle in the near future.

Is it mediocre management? Bill Bavasi made alot of key moves to screw this ballclub. A few samples include his signing of Carlos Silva to a four year, $48MM deal in 2008, His trades that sent Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera in trades to the Indians for limited returns of Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez, or maybe even the massive haul given up for pitcher Erik Bedard, a solid pitcher at the time, but injury problems have held him back.

Or is it the ballpark? Safeco Field has been deemed by most to be one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in baseball. When hitters come here, they faulter. Richie Sexson, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Jack Wilson, the list goes on and on. This has hurt the Mariners in many ways, and has even hurt Hall of Fame outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. in his attempt to make one final hard push.

Either way, this is a ballclub that is once again, in rebuilding mode. After a solid 2009, the Mariners have sunk again in 2010, even after one of the best offseasons in recent years. This is tough for the core of this franchise. Right Fielder Ichiro Suzuki has been here for a decade, and has never experienced a World Series game. Dave Niehaus was the famous announcer here in the Emerald City for over three decades, and never accomplished the huge feat.

So, what exactly can the Mariners do to return to the glory of the golden ’90 years?

They need to go for it. D-Dizzle, the Cardinals writer here at Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors has brought up time after time, that top prospects don’t always suceed. In fact, it is rather rare that prospects will suceed at a high level. Out of youngsters Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Nick Franklin, it is extremely unlucky that all four will turn into MLB stars.

Bringing in a proven talent like Colby Rasmus could really help the Mariners in competing now.

The Mariners need to stay a little loose. They should feel comfortable to set these prospects on the trading block for the right price. The Mariners should go after talent such as Colby Rasmus, Justin Upton, Shin-Soo Choo, or someone of that caliber, that will not only produce in the future, they will produce now. And they have proven themselves.

What exactly would it cost to get someone of that caliber? Likely at least two of the four prospects mentioned. But that’s ok. This is a move that not only brings excitement to fans and sells tickets, it makes an immediete difference. These are proven prospects. They are star ballplayers at the some of the most affordable salaries around baseball.

So, Felix Hernandez, it is not only your hope that this dream comes true, this is my ultimate dream as well. I pray that in the four years remaining in your contract, your dream will be accomplished. I hope that it happens sooner, because we have made key moves to acquire young, proven talent. I hope that the Seattle Mariners will have World Series rings on their fingers sometime in the near future.

Who Would You Rather Have? McCutchen Vs Rasmus

Posted by cubs223425

With 33 SB's on the year, McCutchen can defiently fly around the basepaths.

Over on the forum, there has been a game called “Which Player Would You Rather Have?” It has really taken off, with over one hundred posted inquiries in just eight days. Basically, you pick two players that you find to have similar value, then ask which the replier would prefer to have. Whomever replies gives a name, often with a short reason, then presents the next pair to choose between. This thread has gotten me curious to one comparison in particular (which I’m not sure has been proposed, but I would be shocked if it wasn’t) is a pair of elite  prospects, Colby Rasmus and Andrew McCutchen.

The two have a lot in common. They were born just 60 days apart in 1986. They play the same position (center field). Both were taken in the first round of the 2005 draft–McCutchen 11th,    Rasmus 28th. Both have the ability to hit for average and power, while swiping some bases. They are both capable of becoming the top player at the position. As identical as they might sound, they do have some differences.

For starters, the defense has a gap. Rasmus came up and immediately posted a +9.1 UZR in center in 2009, though he regressed to a -6.5 UZR, possibly due to some nagging injuries. McCutchen, on the other hand, has been considerably worse. His -1.3 UZR in 2009 was tolerable, but 2010′a -14.4 is Adam Dunn-like ineptitude. Now McCutchen plays in a strange park with Pittsburgh, but you can only make excuses and provide hope for so long. He might improve, but he is probably just going to be Nate McLouth in center all over again (WARNING: If he gets a Gold Glove with an ugly season like McLouth, rioting will ensue). Long-term, I would expect Rasmus to stick in center no matter what, but if McCutchen continues this awful escapade, then I would expect Pittsburgh to give another player, perhaps Tabata, a chance in center.

Preventing runs is a big part of baseball, but those that produce them almost always get the spotlight in the common fan’s eyes, even in this saber movement. That is where the styles of Rasmus and McCutchen are most noticeable. Colby Rasmus is the power-speed player, while Andrew McCutchen is the speed-power guy. Rasmus will never be a high-upside base stealer, and McCutchen will never be a middle-of-the-order power threat. The question is, who would you rather have there?

McCutchen is likely to be the more consistent offensive commodity. He is likely to produce a solid .280-15-30 line every year, and he could reach up towards .300-20-40. He will mostly project in the first or second spot in the lineup, as he keeps a more steady OBP and can steal bases at a high rate. Rasmus is another story.

Colby Rasmus will save you almost as many runs as he creates.

There is more risk and reward with McCutchen’s St. Louis counterpart. While he produced a similar OBP and a higher OPS, Rasmus can be a more streaky hitter. On average, the numbers will likely sit around .275-27-15. That can have some leeway, though. His more strikeout-prone swing could see him have a season where his numbers drop to about .260-23-10. In those years, he will have to become a more efficient base stealer to keep his overall offensive game in the mix when the All-Star ballots come around. At the same time, his power and ability to get on base could give his team a line around .285-35-20. Those number won’t set the world on fire, but for a center fielder, those are great, especially if he goes back to those 2009 UZR levels.

Now I’m not some psychic, nor do I like to predict statistics in baseball, because one little adjustment can lead to something where McCutchen has a great or awful year, or Rasmus could become more patient or shorten his swing and become more consistent. He could even have some crazy .300-40-30 year, but I would not bet money on it.

As an overall offensive threat, give me McCutchen. This might have something to do with my being a Cubs fan, but that top-of-the-order speedster is something I crave. Having to watch the likes of Kosuke Fukudome and Ryan Theriot lead off makes me green with envy when I see a guy hitting .300 and stealing 30+ bases.

So, who do I want? My answer is Rasmus.If I was talking about fantasy baseball, I would probably prefer McCutchen. He will guaranteed help you get some Hrs and SBs without risking your team’s batting average (in category leagues) or lose you points for striking out (in points leagues that penalize such things).

However, I am talking about real-life baseball, where millions of dollars and World Championships are on the line. When it comes down to decision time, I want Rasmus because of his defense. Either player could be at the top of his position on offense, but that is why I want the Cards’ guy–he can do it on defense, too. McCutchen will set your team up to score. Rasmus will knock guys in and stop guys like McCutchen from getting triples by not making as many mistakes in the field. As a complete player, the Cardinals appear to have the superior talent.

But, again, I am not a psychic. Don’t come crying to me if you lose money betting on Rasmus and lose!

NL Silver Slugger Awards

Joey Votto was phenomenal for the Reds this year, and played a huge part in getting the Reds a playoff birth. He has a shot at winning this years NL MVP

Posted by Wilchiro

A couple of days ago, BaconSlayer09 talked about the American League Gold Glove awards, as the love affair with overrated shortstop Derek Jeter continues. Needless to say, many people believe that the Gold Glove Awards are just turning into jokes, as voters look are now turning to fame instead of using statistics to determine their votes. Today, I am going to be discussing the National League Silver Slugger Awards, and making my picks based on stats, not fame.

Catcher: Brian McCann (ATL) - McCann was arguably the second best catcher in baseball this season, and he well deserves this award. He had the highest overall WAR of 5.3 over every other NL catcher, to go along with more power, as he hit 21 homeruns and 77 RBIs. His triple slash line of .269/.375/.453 was also among the top in that category. Runner Ups: Carlos Ruiz (PHI), Buster Posey (SF), Geovany Soto (CHC).

First Base: Joey Votto (CIN) – You might be wowed to see that Albert Pujols is not my selection for this award, but he is not far behind. Votto led the league in WAR on the year with an impressive 7.4 mark, to go along with 37 homeruns and 113 RBIs. His triple slash line of .324/.424/.600 beat out Pujols in all three categories as well. Runner Ups: Albert Pujols (STL), Aubrey Huff (SF), Adrian Gonzalez (SD).

Second Base: Dan Uggla (FLA) – Although Dan Uggla did not lead the NL in WAR, he did lead all 2B in the league with 33 homeruns and 105 RBIs. His triple slash line of .287/.369/.508 was near the top in the league, as Uggla netted an All-Star appearence this summer. Even through all of the possible trade talk within the last few days, My pick is for Dan Uggla to win the 2B Silver Slugger in the National League. Runner Ups: Rickie Weeks (MIL), Brandon Phillips (CIN), Chase Utley (PHI).

Despite leading all NL 3B in WAR, Ryan Zimmerman did not land a spot in the All-Star game, though a Silver Slugger award is well deserved

Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – Although David Wright of the New York Mets could put up a debate for the award, my pick is for the young 3B of the Washington Nationals, Ryan Zimmerman. He led all 3B in the league with a 7.2 WAR, beating everyone by 2+ whole points in that category. After barely missing this years All-Star game, Zimmerman slugged 25 HR and 85 RBIs to go along with a slash line of .307/.388/.503. Runner Ups: David Wright (NYM), Scott Rolen (CIN), Placido Polanco (PHI).

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – This was another relatively easy pick. Many people thought that Hanley Ramirez could make a run for the award, but Tulo beat him by a landslide. After an electric September, “Tulo” finished with a .315/.381/.568 slash line, beating all shortstops in those categories. He also slugged 27 HRs and 95 RBIs on the season. Runner Ups: Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Stephen Drew (ARZ), Starlin Castro (CHC).

Left Field: Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – This was a tougher decision. I really that that Cards’ LF Matt Holliday could put up a strong case for the award, but after an abseulute break-out season, I have to give it to him. Afterall, he did slug 34 HRs with 117 RBIs, while maintaining a triple slash line of .336/.376/.598 to go along with it. Runner Ups: Matt Holliday (STL), Ryan Braun (MIL), Josh Willingham (WAS).

After suffering a month of injuries, Troy Tulowitzki was fantastic in September, slugging over half of his season total homeruns during that time

Center Field: Chris Young (ARZ) – Many people might question my pick for Chris Young, but I have my reasons. Many people might say that Torres, Rasmus, or McCutchen deserve the award, but all three relied on luck as opposed to skill for the majority of the season. Young posted a .296 BABIP, while Torres had a .331, Rasmus had a .354, and McCutchen had a .311. Young also had the highest amount of HRs in the league among CF’s  with 27, and the highest amount of RBI’s with 91. Runner Ups: Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Andres Torres (SF), Colby Rasmus (STL).

Right Field: Corey Hart (MIL) – Why not Jayson Werth, Jay Bruce, or Jason Heyward? I’ll tell you why. Hart posted more HRs and RBIs then any other RF in the league with 31 and 102, while maintaining a solid triple slash line of .283/.340/.525. He also relied on more skill as opposed to luck, posting a .324 BABIP on the year, down from Werth’s mark of .352, Bruce’s mark of .334, and Heyward’s mark of .335. Runner Ups: Jayson Werth (PHI), Jason Heyward (ATL), Jay Bruce (CIN).

Note: These predictions are not those of the Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors Writing Team. If you disagree with these rankings and are dissatisfied with them, please send all hate mail to Wilchiro.

Colby Rasmus’ Trade Value

Rasmus' .860 OPS and .366 wOBA were first among full-time NL CFs

Posted by D-Dizzle

Ok, so it has been around the baseball news recently that several teams will pursue the center fielder Colby Rasmus.  Well great, but guess what? He won’t be cheap.  In fact, it will probably take an overwhelming package for the Cardinals to even move him in the first place.  Let’s begin there, shall we?

1.  The Cardinals have no real successor to Rasmus in center field.  If they move him, that just opens up another hole in a lineup that already has holes at third base, shortstop, and second base.

2.  Rasmus is a cost-controlled player.  This isn’t a one year or 1.5 year rental like we’ve seen with some other recent blockbuster caliber trades.  he has *4* years of team control remaining with still one year to go until he reaches arbitration.  What does that mean exactly? Well, it means even the small market teams with budget constraints will be in on Rasmus, thus driving the price up even more.

3.  Recently, FanGraphs did a piece on players who they feel have the most trade value.  Note, that isn’t a list of the best players in that order, rather they take everything into consideration (age, contract status, performance, project performance, etc).  Rasmus was rated at #14,  just ahead of Robinson Cano and behind David Wright.  Granted, this list was made during the season and some of these can be debated, but I think for the most part, it is a pretty accurate listing.

Rasmus is one of the few 5-tool center fielders in baseball

4.  My favorite, the UPSIDE.  Quick, tell me one other center fielder in NL  this season with a higher OPS than Colby Rasmus.  Too late, The correct answer?  There is none.  Rasmus had the highest OPS among all center fielders in baseball this season.  He turned 24 during the season and still has lots of developing to do still.  Science even shows that the human brain doesn’t stop developing until the age of 25 for most males.  Other center fielders to have an OPS of .850 or better at age 23/24 recently:  Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Ken Griffey Jr, Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, and Vernon Wells.    Add in the fact he is also a 5-tool player.  In fact, in 2008, baseball America rated him as the #3 best prospect in all of baseball, and in 2007, had him at #5.  Some people are saying well we don’t want to give up Kyle Drabek, Julio Teheran, Travis Snider, etc because they have too much upside or are untouchable or whatever the reason maybe.  Well, guess what? That was Rasmus just a few years ago.  Now, he has done something that a small number of super-prospects do, live up to their hype (to an extent, as I have said, still some developing to do).

5. Competition.  That’s right folks, there isn’t going to be just one or two teams eying him.  Even the small market teams like the Royals to the big market teams like the Red Sox will show interest in him if he is available.  The sky’s the limit. Everyone can use a guy like him.  Small market teams with budget problems can fit him in their plans and large markets with holes in the outfield will show interest as well.  That means one very important thing: BIDDING WAR.

It would be difficult to set an exact value on him because there just have not been many Rasmus-type players traded in recent memory.  It is also unclear if the Cardinals would be seeking players already on a team’s MLB roster, prospects, or a mix of the two.  However one thing is for sure, he won’t be cheap.

Here are some trade proposals that I think would fit the bill:

To the Yankees for: Brett Gardner, Manny Banuelos

To the Braves for: Craig Kimbrel, Arodys Vizcaino, Omar Infante (one year until free agency)

To the Blue Jays for: Shaun Marcum, Zach Stewart

To the Marlins for: Mike Stanton straight up

I think you can get a good feel for his value with these somewhat generic proposals.