The Phillies Rotation Has Joined an Elite Group

Posted by Wilchiro

The Phillies rotation has joined an elite group of rotations, including the '97 Braves.

We all remember last December, one year and six days from today- December 16th, 2009. The mega blockbuster deal that stole the headlines, Roy Halladay to the Phillies with Cliff Lee heading to Seattle. It was amazing especially for a Seattle fan specifically because it came out of the blue, but it was also exciting for the typical Phillies fan… except for one part-they had to say goodbye to  Cliff Lee, certainly another elite starter. Things have changed, since that day. At the trade deadline, the Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt in a steal of a deal, and just recently, the Phillies brought in the King of the Crop-Cliff Lee.

If you didn’t think the Phillies could put up a fight before, they certainly can now. I remember a year or two back when I used wins to determine the strength of pitchers, but I have changed drastically since then… and the sabermetric world has as well. Luckily, we now have the stat “WAR”, otherwise known as Wins above Replacement to determine any players value. And according to this, the Phillies have now completed the impossible-they have joined an elite group of ten rotations in baseball history, each of which that have four pitchers with a four or more WAR. This list includes infamous rotations, such as the 1967 Cincinatti Reds (actually had five pitchers with a four or more WAR), the 1997 Atlanta Braves (yes, this is the rotation that consisted of Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz), the 1997 New York Yankees, the 1991 Atlanta Braves, the 1960 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1913 New York Giants, the 1912 Boston Red Sox, the 1912 Pittsburgh Pirates, the 1909 Philadelphia Phillies, and now this marvelous rotation.

Unfortunatly, Bill James has not come out with WAR projections, but the fans projections are all optimistic, perhaps overly optimistic. The lowest WAR out of Fans’ projections is Hamels, and even that is at a 4.3 mark.

There you have it. In a small but informative post, I hope you got a snapshot of just how dominate the Phillies rotation is.

Revisiting the Cliff Lee Trade: Part Three

Posted by Teix4MVP

So as Wilchiro and MagicSox have already told you, Cliff Lee has been traded along for prospects and whatnot, and he has performed well everywhere he went, whether it be in Philly or Seattle, or Cleveland. After the addition of Lee to the Mariners, many picked them to win the AL West. However, when the Mariners were quickly smacked out of contention, they decided to trade their second ace, who they would lose to free agency after the season.

It was hard to see Lee go, but M's fans knew it was all for the good.

At first, it looked like the Yankees were going to get him (I remember refreshing the website MLB Trade Rumors every 10-20 minutes just to see if they’d get a deal done) with a package centered around top 5 prospect, catcher Jesus Montero. The deal looked done; that is, until the Mariners opened up conversations with the Rangers again after they apparently didn’t like the package that also included prospect David Adams and probably Zach McAllister (who was later dealt for Austin Kearns) and liked a package centered around Justin Smoak more, along with guys like Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson, and of course, the now-infamous Josh Lueke. They made the deal, sending Lee (and an out-for-the-season Mark Lowe) to the Rangers on July 9th, So, I’m going to break down the players as they’ve progressed through this year. Let’s start with the player(s) the Rangers got.

The Texas Rangers received:

Cliff Lee (and cash)

The 32-year-old Cliff Lee didn’t perform as well as expected in Texas. He went 4-6, had a 3.98 ERA, and saw his WHIP jump to 1.058 from .945.  His BB/9 went from .5 to 1.0, and his SO/BB dropped from a godly 14.83 to 8.00. His September was pretty good, as he went 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA, but in August he went 1-4 and had a 6.35 ERA. He was a great clubhouse presence for the upstart Rangers, and he led them straight to the World Series in the Playoffs. He defeated two of the best offenses in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees, easily, giving up just 2 ERs in 24 innings pitched. He allowed just 14 baserunners (he had just one walk allowed) and he struck out 34 batters. And just like that, Lee and the Rangers had reached the World Series, the first the franchise had reached against the San Francisco Giants. The Rangers looked like the favorites to many, particularly because of their ace, Clifford Phifer Lee, and he was starting Game 1. He was 7-0 in his career during the playoffs, and he looked to improve to 8-0 against the Giants hitters, who didn’t have a 30 HR guy.

Or a 100-RBI guy.

Or even a 90-RBI guy.

They DID end up showing Cliff Lee what it was like to lose, actually handing him 2 losses and a 6.94 ERA. He had an over 10 WHIP, compared to a .375 WHIP against the Yankees and a .688 against the Rays. And just like that, the Rangers had lost their first World Series, and their ace was sent towards his first huge payday and a decision of what team to join next season.

Mark Lowe

This was an interesting addition to the trade. Lowe was out for the season with a back surgery, but managed to make it back at the very end of the regular season, pitching in 3 games but had a 12.00 ERA. In the postseason, he pitched in 2 games, and gave up 5 earned runs. At age 27, he isn’t a prospect player, so he was included in the deal as a probable throw-in, although the Rangers want him. He’s arbitration-eligible, so look for him to  be in the Rangers plans for 2011.

Mark Lowe has a fastball that reaches 100 MPH at times, and he could be an elite pitcher in the Texas bullpen in 2011.

The Rangers’ GM Daniels was widely praised for making this deal, as he greatly improved his team’s chances to make it to the playoffs but also did it without giving up any of his blue chip minors prospects. Lee was the obvious prize of the trade, but look for Lowe next season, as he’s one year removed from 75 appearances and a 3.26 ERA, although that should go up due to the park he’s now pitching in. The Rangers have the financial flexibility to sign the best free agent this year’s class has to offer, although the offer has to stack up against those of the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers, among others. The Rangers do have an edge in the Lee negotiations, however, as Texas is close to his Arkansas home. Whoever signs Lee will get an immediate impact pitcher.

Let’s move on to the M’s part of the deal, starting with the centerpiece, rookie first baseman…

Justin Smoak

Smoak came up to replace the struggling Chris Davis at first base on April 22. He struggled in his time with the Rangers, having a slashline of .209/.316/.353, which wasn’t much better than Davis’s mark of .192/.279/.292. But this does not take away from Smoak’s potential. Smoak was a top fifteen prospect entering the season, rated by Baseball America and MLB Network. He has a solid glove at 1B as evident by a UZR of 2.2, and has drawn comparisions to stars such as Mark Teixeira and Lance Berkman in the past. This guy looks like the real deal.

Josh Lueke

Lueke shows a ton of potential and this is shown by an impressive year, going 5-2 with a 1.86 ERA in 50 games. He posted alot more K’s then he pitched innings, and he will likely be utilized in the Mariners bullpen entering the 2011 season. When acquired, the Mariners were not aware of previous problems with rape, and that is why they have begun to dangle him on the trade market.

Blake Beavan

Justin Smoak was the centerpiece of the Lee deal. He has drawn comparisions to Teixeira and Berkman.

Blake Beavan is a solid piece. At 6’7″ 250 pounds, Beavan posted great numbers in three levels with Texas and Seattle this year, going 14-8 with a 3.90 ERA in 168.1 IP. It doesn’t seem like he blows anyone away with just 101 K’s on the season, but this shouldn’t be an issue as long as he is getting the outs. Beavan is currently in AAA Tacoma, and could fight for a spot in the rotation out of Spring Training, depending on the health status of recently re-signed lefty Erik Bedard.

Matthew Lawson

Lawson was essentially a throw-in piece who likely won’t play a huge part in the Mariners future plans, and will likely be used as trade bait, as he is blocked by stud prospects Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager. He did post decent stats on the year, though, hitting .293/.372/.439 with a solid OPS of .815.

Although it was hard for Mariners fans to see Lee go after such a great offseason followed by a solid 2009, it was evident that a trade was on the way. Jack Zduriencik likely got a maximum return for the lefty, considering the status of his contract and the demands for his salary. This was a trade that worked perfectly for both sides; the Rangers got one of the best pitchers in baseball in Lee who eventually led them in their surge to the World Series, with a fireball arm in Lowe who has a shot as the closer slot if Feliz becomes a starter in 2011. The Mariners got their future 1B in Smoak who fits perfectly with their plans with his left handed bat, solid glove and marginal power, a couple of solid bullpen arms in Lueke and Beavan, and a young 2B in Lawson. This trade was a win-win for both sides.

Revisiting the Cliff Lee Deal: Part Two

Posted by Wilchiro

In part one of the Cliff Lee series, MagicSox reviewed the trade that sent Cliff Lee to Philadelphia along with Ben Francisco for prospects Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald. Over the course of the next few days, Teix will be reviewing the trade that sent Lee to Texas and landed him a World Series birth, but today I am here to revisit the trade that sent him to my favorite team, the Seattle

The trade in December of 2009 which sent Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners was truly a blessing from God.

 Mariners.

Last December, fans were preparing for a blockbuster Roy Halladay trade to the Yankees or Phillies, as he was beginning to become expensive for a young Toronto Blue Jays ballclub. Several weeks into the offseason, news came up that Roy Halladay was going to be shipped to Philadelphia. But thats not all. On that day, Cliff Lee was also dealt to the Mariners in a blockbuster four way deal involving the Phillies, Blue Jays, Mariners, and A’s. Fans from all around Seattle were going crazy, and fans from other teams were jealous. I remember coming home that day, and logging on to MLBTR like a normal, typical day, when suddenly I scroll down and see the Blessing from God. I was amazed. Many people were surprised that the Phillies didn’t keep Lee around for a perfect 1-2 punch rotation with Halladay and crew, but the Phillies front office had decided that they couldn’t afford the two. Here are the players in the deal, and the impact they have made for their ballclubs.

Going to the Phillies

SP Roy Halladay – Halladay was the major piece of the blockbuster deal. After a 17-10 record with an impressive ERA of 2.79 and an FIP of 3.06, it was obvious that the Blue Jays could not lock him up and give him the $20 million he was looking for. After several months stretching from the Trade Deadline to mid December 2009, the Jays finally found a new home for him, by trading him to the Philadelphia Phillies for three prospects. Since then Halladay has just been phenominal, with a 21-10 record on the season, with a 2.44 ERA and a 3.01 FIP, to go along with a perfect game and a brilliant no hitter in the playoffs, Halladay has been well worth that three year $60 million deal signed last year. He is a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award in 2010, being announced within the next couple of weeks.

OF Tyson Gillies – Currently in the Double-A Eastern league in Philadelphia’s minor league system, Gillies mightily struggled in 2010. Still considered a top 10 prospect in their system, Gillies played just 28 games this year for the Phillies due to several hamstring injuries. Some people say that his ceiling is Shane Victorino with a higher batting average, more walks, more steals, less HR’s, and not quite as good with the glove. If all goes well, Gillies could be Ibanez’s replacement for the 2012 season.

SP JC Ramirez – Also in the Double-A minors system for the Phillies, JC Ramirez has proven to be an average pitcher thus far. He hasn’t been dominant, but he’s been decent, as shown by a 7-7 record with a 4.82 ERA in Reading on the year. His absolute ceiling is a number three or four starter, but he will likely turn into a back-end reliever. A positive is his WHIP is 1.32 with no one on, but 1.15 with runners on base.

SP Phillipe Aumont – At the time, he was considered the main piece of the deal, but after a year in Class A he has ultimately fallen apart. He had a 3-11 record on the year with a 5.68 ERA and a .276 BAA. His 6.7 BB/9 is completely horrendous. Although the potential is there and he is still young at just 21, he will need a major bounceback season in order to be back in the Phillies future plans.

Going to the Jays

SP Kyle Drabek – Drabek was considered a must in the deal that sent Halladay to Philadelphia, and the Jays got their wish. Drabek is now a top 25 prospect throughout baseball, and that is well deserved. In 2010, he went 14-9 with a 2.94 ERA and 132 K’s in 162.0 IP. He looks very promising and many see him as a future top of the rotation ace. Expect him to join the Jays

Halladay was the centerpiece of a blockbuster four way deal in 2009.

 rotation as a regular starter in 2011.

1B Brett Wallace – After being shipped to Toronto in his second trade in a number of months, Brett Wallace has shown alot of promise. After an impressive 2010 season with a triple slash line of .301/.359/.509 in the minors, Brett Wallace was again dealt to the Houston Astros for outfielder Anthony Gose. Wallace could become the starting 1B for the Houston Astros in 2011.

C Travis D’Arnaud – The Phillies were reluctant to give this guy up as well. Even after a relatively solid season in Single-A Dunedin, there is no telling whether D’Arnaud will be up in the majors any time soon, as he is blocked by star catching prospect JP Arencibia. After a season in which he hit .259/.315/.411, there might be teams that draw interest in the young backstop this winter, if the Blue Jays decide to make him available.

Going to the Mariners

SP Cliff Lee – Let’s face it, this was a Christmas miracle. As the Mariners were doing anything they could to boost their roster and secure a playoff birth in 2010 (which ultimately didn’t happen), the Mariners found their guy. After a rather questionable trade by the Phillies, Cliff Lee had an awesome season for the Seattle M’s in 2010 before being dealt to the Texas Rangers at the deadline and landing a World Series birth. He had a 12-9 record, with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with 212.1 IP, despite being injured the whole month of April. This is a classy guy with alot of playoff experience, and will draw lots of interest for next year. He will make an impact on whatever team he decides to go to in the end.

Going to the A’s

OF Michael Taylor – Orginally traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in the three way deal, Taylor was immedietly dealt to the A’s shortly after

A 1-2 Punch of King Felix and Cliff Lee put a scare into the heart of opposing hitters for half of the 2010 season.

 the trade for Brett Wallace. This trade has panned out for Oakland, as Taylor is now a top 40 prospect throughout baseball. He slugged .272/.348/.392 with an OPS of .740 in 2010, as he also demonstrates good speed as shown by 16 SB. Taylor has alot of potential, and if all goes well he might be up in the majors by late 2011 or early 2012.

This is a trade that helped all four teams in some way. The Phils’ now have their ace locked up for the next two years, the Jays have three solid prospects who could potentially make an impact in 2011, the Mariners got a solid ace in Lee who made an excellent 1-2 punch with Felix Hernandez (without having to give up the world for him), and the A’s got Taylor who is a top 40 prospect throughout baseball and could potentially make a difference on the A’s starting roster for the next several years to come.

In Part three of the Cliff Lee series, Teix will be reviewing the blockbuster trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers and Justin Smoak to the Mariners at the Trade Deadline of 2010.

Revisiting the Cliff Lee Deal: Part One

 

 

 

Cliff Lee was a major key to the Phillies playoff success in 2009

Posted by MagicSox

Over the next couple of days, both Wilchiro and I will be working on a two-part Cliff Lee feature article.  I’ll be recapping the trade that brought him to Philadelphia from the Cleveland Indians, and Wilchiro will cover the deal where they shipped him to Seattle and Teix will analyze the trade to Texas that landed him in his second World Series.

We all remember the anticipation surrounding the sweepstakes.  For Indians fans who stopped by to catch a game during the early weeks of summer, you knew that every time you saw Cliff could be the last.  This was an Indians team far, far out of contention, relying on young players and having a pitching staff as awful as an AMC Pacer (that is, besides Lee of course, him being more of a Chevy Camaro).  The path of any team with such a poor record and a superstar on their hands is to trade him for multiple young prospects that will help the team.  The Indians had done the same the previous year, sending staff ace C.C. Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers for a number of young guns, including current Indians regulars Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley.  The path was simple, but Mark Shapiro knew that with Lee he had a goldmine; a player coming off of going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA, the kind of starter a playoff contender needs to push it over the top.

I personally remember seeing Lee’s last home game for the Indians, July 16th, 2009.  A meaningless game against the Mariners, another team not going anywhere in October anytime soon.  Lee pitched a complete game, allowing one run and striking out six without giving up a walk, a fine outing.  His opponent on the mound was Garrett Olson, and the Indians made short work of him.  It ended up being a 4-1 Indians victory.  I felt happy for Lee and his excellent performance, but a nagging voice in my head said, “Wouldn’t it be nice to see him do this when it actually counts?”

Thirteen days later, Cliff Lee was traded to the Phillies in a 6-player deal.  Let me break it down right here:

Going to the Phillies:

SP Cliff Lee: Although Lee only gave them half a season of pretty good pitching (7-4, 3.39), he had a 7.4 K/BB ratio that would make most starters jealous, not to mention a sub-1 WHIP for the first time in his career.  However, his most valuable contributions to the team came in the playoffs.  Over the course of the NLDS, NLCS, and World Series, Lee had a 4-0 record with a 1.56 ERA, outdueling Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies in the opening game of the NLDS, pitching a complete game, 3-hit, 10-strikeout shutout in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers, and leading the Phillies to their only two wins of the 2009 World Series against the New York Yankees in Games 1 and 5.

It’s safe to say that Lee’s outstanding performance in the postseason was one of the main factors in why the Phillies made it as far as they did.  I’m going to give him four and a half stars out of five, the only thing keeping him from a perfect score being the fact that he only contributed for 2 months of regular season ball.

OF Ben Francisco: Francisco was coming off of a solid 2008 rookie campaign as the starting leftfielder for Cleveland, hitting .266 with 54 RBIs and a 1.4 WAR value (comparable right now to, say, Kurt Suzuki), along with a mediocre 2.7 UZR/150.  Not a starter on most other MLB teams, and a throw-in in deals like these.  Upon his arrival in Philly, he was moved to the bench (not being a better starter than Raul Ibanez), and proceeded to slug .526 as a pinch-hitter.  In contrast to Lee, Francisco did nothing during the playoffs, going 0 for 11 while only reaching base once.

In 2010, Francisco’s been hitting a pedestrian .252 with little to no power as Philadelphia’s fourth outfielder.  He provides spot-on defense in left with a 27.2 UZR/150, while he’s been horrid in right, with that statistic measuring -44.4 on that side of the field.  The bottom line is, Philadelphia acquired a slightly below-average hitting backup outfielder who can adequately fill in in leftfield, but is a liability anywhere else you put him.  I’m going to give him 1 and a half stars out of five, because this spot on the roster could be filled by someone with more speed, defensive skill, and pop in the bat.

Phillies’ average: 3 stars out of five

Going to the Indians:

SP Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco was a highly touted prospect for Philadelphia, dominating the lower ranks of the minors with his fastball, which topped out at 96.  Although some scouts questioned his command, the sheer ferocity of his fastball and the added bonus of two plus off-speed pitches (a changeup and a curveball) made him a very attractive commodity.  After a 2008 season in which he averaged over eight and a half strikeouts a game for AA Reading and had a successful taste of AAA Lehigh Valley, he was poised to take the International League by storm in 2009.  Despite an ugly ERA of 5.18, his high strikeout rating and velocity kept his value high.  After the trade, he reported to the Indians’ AAA Columbus affiliate, going 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA and holding opponents to a .196 batting average.  This made the Indians think that he was ready, and he proceeded to get absolutely hammered in the majors: 0-4, 8.87 ERA, as many walks as strikeouts, and giving up 6 home runs in 5 games.

The Indians still had faith in him

Jason Donald is best known throughout baseball for being called safe on Armando Galaragga's near perfect game that was blown by umpire Jim Joyce

despite that major rough patch, and have kept him in AAA all year for more much-needed seasoning.  He’s currently at 10-5 with a 3.71 ERA, respectable numbers.  His days of unreal K/BB ratios are gone, his strikeout numbers have tanked, and his BAA is higher than it used to be, but there is still potential there.  Baseball America ranked him as the #8 prospect in Cleveland’s system, and the #4 pitcher in the organization.  Carrasco has been one of the most puzzling pieces of this trade: I’m giving him 2.5 out of 3 stars, because the jury’s still out.  He could still be able to contribute to Cleveland whether as a starter or reliever, and just as easily he could flame out and leave baseball.  Only time will tell.

C Lou Marson: Marson was fresh off of two high-RBI seasons in 2007 and 2008 for Class A+ Lakewood and AA Reading.  Baseball America had him ranked #3 in the Phillies’ system, praising him as “the Phillies’ most polished minor league hitter, with the system’s best plate discipline and a professional approach.”  Pretty good for someone who hadn’t even turned 23 yet, eh?  He was hitting .294 for AAA Lehigh Valley at the time of the trade, with a 4 for 17 cup of coffee with Philly.  Like Carrasco, he reported to Columbus, and his batting numbers immediately dropped.  He only hit .243, with his OBP and and SLG in the low .300s. He has yet to shine in the majors since coming over in that trade from the Phillies.

SS Jason Donald: Remember the guy that was called safe on Armando Galaragga’s near perfect game on June 2nd, 2010? That was this guy. He was a top 10 prospect in the Phillies orgininzation in the 2009 season, and since then, he hasn’t done much. In 88 games with the Indians MLB club this year, he managed just a triple slash line of .253/.312/.378 with 4 homeruns and 24 RBI’s. He is most likely a career utility guy at best.

P Jason Knapp: This was the last piece of the deal. At the time, Knapp was having a bad year in the Phillies A-Ball team, with just a 2-7 record and a 4.18 ERA. He is now regarded as a highly touted prospect, as he was ranked #64 throughout baseball by Baseball America entering the 2010 season. Although he has a long road before he hits the majors, this guy is showing promise.

In part two, Wilchiro will be reviewing the trade that sent pitcher Cliff Lee to the Mariners in a blockbuster deal. I hope you enjoyed my post.

The Championship Series

Posted by Wilchiro

The Division Series was officially wrapped up yesterday with a Rangers 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees easily won their series with a three game sweep, as well as the Phillies with the Giants beating out the Braves in a four game series. We are now moving on to Level number two, the Championship Series, which kicks off at 8 ET Friday, with the New York Yankees taking on the Texas Rangers. The Phillies and Giants series will start up at 7:30 ET on Saturday. I just thought I would write a brief post reviewing pitching matchups and lineups, and making my picks to advance on to Level number three- the last level- the World Series.

Cliff Lee has played a huge part in the Rangers Playoff Success thus far.

On Friday evening, Cy Young candidate C.C. Sabathia will be taking the mound against youngster lefty C.J. Wilson. For casual fans, Sabathia posted an impressive 21 win mark on the season with a 3.18 ERA and 197 strikeouts. He posted an FIP of 3.54, a bit lower then his xFIP of 3.78. He was worth 5.1 WAR on the season and had a BABIP of .285. He has some postseason experience from the past, and with a strong Yankees offense behind him, expect him to be lights out in game one. CJ Wilson will be taking the ball for the Rangers in game one, as Cliff Lee was used to pitch the Rangers into the series. The pressure will be there, And I question whether he will be able to maintain his composure and pitch a quality game against the dreaded Bronx Bombers. Wilson posted a 15-8 record on the season and a 3.35 ERA. He lucked out a bit though, as shown by his FIP of 3.56, when his xFIP was all the way up at 4.20. Wilson will be pitching at home in Arlington Ballpark, so supposedly the offense will thrive.

Now on to the offense. These are two very good all around ballclubs. But the thing that really pushes these two over the top is the offense. This is the reason why they are the two best teams in the American League right now. The Yankees have the 3-4-5 of Teixera, A-Rod, Cano, while the Rangers have Hamilton, Big Bad Vlad, and Cruz. The Yankees will have Derek Jeter leading off, with the Rangers letting Elvis Andrus get things started. The Yankees have veteran Jorge Posada handle the catching duties, with Bengie Molina catching for the Rangers. These are two amazing lineups, and this will be a really, really fun series to watch. I think it’s up in the air concerning who will advance to the World Series.

The next series starting Saturday night is the Giants taking on the Phillies. San Francisco will send out “The Freak” to the mound to set the stage, with Roy Halladay going out for the Phillies. It doesn’t get much better then this, folks. This is a classic playoff pitching matchup. Tim Lincecum had a fantastic game against the Braves in game one, throwing a complete game shutout with an impressive fourteen strikeouts. Roy Halladay was even better then that in the Reds series. He was brilliant. He was dominant. He was basically perfect. Halladay threw the second ever playoff no hitter in game one, making history against the best offense in the MLB. Most people suspect he will win the Cy Young Award this year, posting 21 wins with an ERA of 2.44, an FIP of 3.01, and a WAR of 6.6. With Halladay, the Jays might have even had a legit shot at the AL East this year. Lincecum on the other hand had a down year, with a 16-10 record, an ERA of 3.43, and a WAR of 5.1, although FIP and xFIP suggests that he was somewhat unlucky on the year… his BABIP was relatively high. More or less, you can expect to see the typical Lincecum in game one of the NLCS…. dominance, dominance, dominance.

Brilliant. Dominant. Literally Perfect. That is what Roy Halladay was in game one of the NLDS.

On the other hand, these are two completely different offenses. The Phillies have a 3-4 of Howard, Utley, with even more protection of Rollins, Victorino, and Werth. Although Rollins and Utley have had drastically down years, the Phillies still own one of the best offenses in the buisness- they are a tough beat. Meanwhile, the Giants have had a better year offensively then 2009, but having a middle of the order of Huff and Posey doesn’t match up to the multiple threats of the Phillies lineup. We all know the Giants have the rotation to match up to the Phils, but do they have the neccesary offense to advance to the “Big Show?”

Yes, these teams will have question marks going into their Championship Series, but on the same token, these are four very respectable ballclubs… As for the question Who will advance to the Big Show, looks like we’ll just have to wait and see.

2011 Chicago Cubs: Starting Pitching

Posted by cubs223425

Before I even get this ball rolling, two things:

1. The Chicago Cubs will NOT sign Cliff Lee.

2. The Chicago Cubs SHOULD not sign Cliff Lee.

With that out of the way, we can move on to realistic possibilities.

I thought about writing this article for a moment, and I realized just how much of a mess this rotation really has become. Randy Wells has regressed worse than I could have ever imagined (and I didn’t like him going into this year AT ALL). Tom Gorzelanny did it again (looked good for a bit then imploded–just like in Pittsburgh). Carlos Silva summed up the epitome of the Cubs’ season (high hopes to start, then a complete wreck by the middle of the year). Carlos Zambrano starts the puzzling offseason questions (should they keep him? Will they keep him? Can they even move him?) by being the reverse of Gorzelanny and Silva.

With all of the above statements made, I went to work on Zambrano.

Five days ago, I looked at Zambrano in this post. When it came right down to it, I determined that Zambrano’s troubles outweigh all of the good he has done on the mound since his return. That didn’t stop the wonderful Jim Hendry from committing to him for next year, meaning that the Cubs will be committed to his $17.875 million salary for next season as well.

Unless something drastic changes in the Cubs’ front office, it appears that this sad mess of a rotation will be the exact same in 2011 as it was at the end of 2010. That would mean:

1. Carlos Zambrano – 129 2/3 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 131 ERA+

2. Ryan Dempster – 215 1/3 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1,32 WHIP, 113 ERA+

3. Randy Wells – 194 1/3 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 102 ERA+

4. Tom Gorzelanny – 136 1/3 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 106 ERA+

5. Carlos Silva – 113 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 103 ERA+

Here is what I notice from this:

Anyone that expects Zambrano to replicate a 3.33 ERA with a WHIP above that of Randy Wells, who posted a 4.26 ERA, is dead wrong. Seeing that alone lets me know that Zambrano needs to be gone. What’s worse is that the bottom-3 starters are barely average. That means that the Cubs would need a great offense to make up for it, and they certainly do not have that at this time. I’m seeing another losing season.

Originally, I came into this post looking to find a taker for Zambrano, but now Jim Hendry has ruined those hopes. So, now, the Chicago fan base has to pray that the Cubs move one of Wells, Gorzelanny, and Silva in a trade or to the bullpen so they can bring in a starting pitcher. Of those three, I see Silva as the most likely because of his age and injury concerns.

The first target in free agency to fill a rotation spot was Brandon Webb. He has since managed an outing where he topped 81 MPH and demanded a contract that rivals those of Rich Harden and Ben Sheets, ignoring that both of those pitchers were utter failures for Texas and Oakland, respectively. So, no Cliff Lee, no Brandon Webb. Where does that leave the market?

At a glance, the names that pop out are: Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Jorge De La Rosa. Taking Lilly back if he is offered arbitration would make little sense. It would mean giving up a draft pick to bring a player back that we clearly sold low on (Blake DeWitt was really the best we could get?). Harang is dead, no doubt about it. Vazquez would be Carlos Silva with more strikeouts. So, Jorge De La Rosa it is.

If this is the best the market has to offer, then the Cubs are in serious trouble. His 110 ERA+ was actually WORSE away from Coors Field. His K/9 drops from 9.5 to 6.9. His ERA rises from 4.10 to 4.36. His WHIP goes from 1.24 to 1.42. This is a 30-year-old whose 110 ERA+ has actually ranked as his best season in his career.

Now, after looking at the free agent market, I think it makes more sense to just let Carlos Silva get shelled rather than dish out money to watch someone else do it for him. So, does anyone have any ideas on trade options?

My Vote for the AL Cy Young Award

Posted by Wilchiro

There are several canidates for this years AL Cy Young  award winner, including David Price, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, CC Sabathia, Francisco Liriano, Felix Hernandez, Clay Buchholz, Jered Weaver, and more. I will take a look at advanced sabermetrics such as Wins above Replacement (War) and Fielding Independant Pitching (FIP) to determine who really deserves to win the award.

Cliff Lee was dealt to the Rangers in early July for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, and two other prospects.

If you want to use Wins to determine the winner, you’re vote would probably be for CC Sabathia. If you want to use ERA to determine the winner, you’re vote is most likely for Clay Buchholz.

Jered Weaver could have a case, as he currently leads the league in strikeouts with 186. Francisco Liriano is currently the leader in FIP with an impressive number of 2.33, although xFIP suggests that that could change. Cliff Lee leads the WAR category with a fantastic 6.0 WAR. That’s a better WAR then Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell of the Mariners have accumulated over the last three years combined!

Cliff Lee also leads the WHIP stat (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched), with an excellent 0.98 WHIP. On his tail is Trevor Cahill of the A’s with a 0.99.

King Felix leads the league in IP with 197 Innings, Cliff Lee leads the league in Complete Games with 7, and Trevor Cahill leads the league in AVG, as opposing teams have hit just .197 off him thus far.

So who is my vote for? I have to say Cliff Lee. He missed the entire month of April, and still is in 3rd place for IP. He leads the league in WAR, WHIP, and Complete Games. He is 2nd in FIP. And he currently pitches in the most hitter friendly ballpark in baseball.

I’m sure when it is time to vote, there will be several different votes, for several different pitchers. Francisco Liriano could very well win the award, with an FIP of 2.33 and several other impressive numbers. CC Sabathia and Clay Buchholz, the leaders in wins and ERA, will also get several votes. Jered Weaver, the leader in strikeouts, could be a darkhorse for the award.

But in my opinion, Cliff Lee truly deserves the 2010, American League Cy Young Award.