Matt Garza on the North Side

Posted by Wilchiro

Not so long ago, Matt Garza was traded to the Chicago Cubs along with Fernando Perez and Zach Rosscup in exchange for prospects Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, and Sam Fuld. And while the Cubs were supposedly dealing from depth, the deal was immediately deemed a drastic overpay. Jim Hendry has been known to be a knucklehead general manager in the past, and this trade likely added to that description. But today, I am not here to evaluate the winners and losers of the deal, but rather to evaluate the the centerpiece of the deal, Matt Garza, and to give a briefing on the impact that he should bring to the north side of town.

Matt Garza was supplemented by one of the best defenses in the game. He no longer has that advantage.

To clear the air, this post was not created to criticize Garza, because he is a respectable pitcher. He is a good pitcher, that is for a fact, but he is not elite. He had a solid campaign in 2010 and has really improved as a pitcher overall. He threw a no-hitter in 2010, and a casual baseball fan may even present a case that he has a shot at the 2011 NL Cy Young award based on simple statistics. But in a sabermetric sense, this probably isn’t the case at all. Garza has spent majority of his career with the Tampa Bay Rays, an organization who has always had a keen eye for defense. Evan Longoria, the fifth best defensive 3B in baseball, and Carl Crawford, the second best defensive LF in baseball, have always supplemented Matt Garza, but that advantage no longer remains. The Rays combined team UZR last year was amongst the highest in the league with a mark of 33.3, compared to a slightly above average mark of 2.3 produced from the Cubs. This needs to be taken into account, as this was a large part of Garza’s success factor, as his FIP has consistently been .3- .4 runs higher then his ERA.

While defense has definitely been a key to Garza’s past success, that is not whole story. Garza has a tendency to be a fly ball pitcher, and in Tampa  Bay, that wasn’t a glaring issue. But according to the MLB Park Factors for 2010, Tropicana Field was the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball, with Wrigley being the third most hitter friendly ballpark, therefore proving that both stadiums are essentially opposites, especially when the wind is blowing out. And to further prove this point, let’s look at Garza’s splits away from his home field, shall we? At home last year, Garza posted above average numbers, sporting an ERA of 3.51. But when Garza didn’t have that coveted home field advantage this year, playing in parks such as Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, Rogers Centre, and Camden Yards, he posed a 4.27 ERA, good for mediocre at best. And if that’s the kind of production he is going to bring to Wrigley Field this season, Jim Hendry better call for help.

Edwin Jackson's ERA became more of a reality in 2010.

But sometimes, numbers can’t sum it all up. To further extend my point, let’s look at Edwin Jackson, who was traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the offseason of 2010. Jackson pitched in one of the more pitcher friendly ballparks in baseball in Comerica Park, and was relatively lucky, sporting an ERA .5 points lower then his FIP. In a transition to one of the more hitter friendly parks in the MLB, Jackson’s ERA became more of a reality as he posted a 4.47 ERA in 2011.

I hope this post doesn’t mirror to any viewers as an analysis that penalizes Matt Garza. He has some good make-up and he could even be an ace for some teams. But what I am trying to stress here is that Jim Hendry and crew gave up a heap of young talent for him, and facing the facts, Garza just isn’t worth it at this point unless he makes some dramatic changes in his game. But like I mentioned previously, Garza is still at a stage where he can make improvements to his game and become elite. But it won’t come naturally. Garza needs to pray for some help from his defense and cut down on his  fly ball rates. If he does that, this deal might just be worth it for the Cubs. If not, the Cubs might have just made a mess of their future, which shouldn’t have happened in the first place.

Picking Apart Reality and Fantasy

Posted by Wilchiro

When you think about baseball in general, do you think of Juan Pierre as a stud player? I know I don’t and I’m guessing you don’t either unless you’re one of those biased homers out there. But from a fantasy standpoint, in any league that uses the 4-by-4 or 5-by-5 categories, two stats are coveted due to scarsity – Stolen Bases and Saves. The reasoning for this is because there is only a handful of players in the game that can produce a large quantity of either, and therefore those players can become dominant, sometimes winning a category victory alone. There is one rather large problem with this though – Mediocre players in the major leagues can often become studs in fantasy baseball due to this scarcity. And for some people, it can become confuzzling and a big disconnect between reality and the ways in which fantasy baseball is scored.

Juan Pierre is often overhyped in fantasy terms due to his 68 stolen bases.

Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls were both amongst the worst relievers in the majors last year, but because of the fact that Arizona had a deflating bullpen, those two together were aloud to rack up 27 saves. If you picked up either in a trade or draft before the season, you were likely rewarded due to the rarity of decent closers, even if they did post north of a 6 ERA combined.

Moving on into the batters side, the scarcity of stolen bases allowed Juan Pierre to become a fantasy baseball stud, for a lack of better words. In 2010, Juan Pierre swiped 68 bags, good for first in baseball and over 5% of the grand stolen base total in the major leagues. Mathematically, that can be considered equivalent to someone who hit 99 HR’s in one year. Many teams picked him up and utilized him as a starting OF. But in reality, the 33 year old OF is lucky to have sustained a regular job at this point.

By viewing every statistic equally, fantasy baseball places the greatest impact on things that are hard to come by, not the stats that truly matter. By weighting stats according to their true importance in terms of winning baseball games, we could easily have a scoring system that mirrored real life major league teams, rather then treating mediocre, leftover scraps in a negative sense – with weak skillsets as all-stars.

Qualls actually had a good year.... in fantasy baseball.

In this particular situation, the work has already been completed. In the 1970s, Pete Palmer announced a method known as “Linear Weights” which calculates the actual run value of each event, and let’s us study the real worth of some statistics. For example, a HR at this point in time is seven times more valuable then a stolen base. The homerun produces 1.4 runs on average, as opposed to the stolen base which produces 0.2 runs, essentially. Utilizing this linear weights system, Juan Pierre’s flashy 68 stolen bases are technically worth 14 homeruns in real life. Not quite as flashy, right?

Any scoring system that insures that all statistics are equally the same will likely cause problems for player valuations, at least for a couple people that I know of. Back when everything had to be counted by hand, it made sense to simply tally up all of the numbers, but with some of modern day leagues being scored automatically by spreadsheets and online management software, there is really no reason to continue that method, or tradition. Some stats are just alot more important then others and should be treated accordingly.

(Editors Note: The idea of this article was that of Dave Cameron’s. I caught onto the idea and I made an article of my own).

Appreciating Troy Tulowitzki

Posted by Wilchiro

Tulo is one of the most underrated players in the game today.

It’s unfortunate how a top five player in the game is underrated. In my fair and honest opinion, Troy Tulowitzki gets overshadowed by other legitimate shortstops around him, specifically Hanley Ramirez and the not so legit Derek Jeter. But “Tulo” has a bat and a glove just as good as anyone in the game and certainly as good as any shortstop in recent history. Not only that, but when using some sabermetric centered statistics, Tulowitzki is comparable to the likes of Honus Wagner.

I’m sure most of you saber-minded fellows out there reading this post know what the stat “WAR” means, but understandably if you don’t, it means “Wins above Replacement.” It takes all of the tools in a players game and throws them together to get your WAR. If you’re a solid fielder and a solid hitter, you’re going to get a solid WAR. Usually a 3 WAR is pretty respectable and a 5 WAR is All-Star Material to my standards. Anyways, I went to FanGraphs and put together a WAR Graph to compare Troy Tulowitzki and Honus Wagner side by side, using total cumulative WAR at the same point in time. I was interested but rather surprised by the results.

Honus Wagner, Age 25: 12.0 WAR
Troy Tulowitzki, Age 25: 16.8 WAR

While Honus and Troy aren’t necessarily similar players, Honus is arguably the most notable SS in baseball history and to see that Tulo has made more progress at this stage in their careers is pretty astounding. A Honus Wagner card just sold for $262,000 in Baltimore, Maryland. If Tulo continues at this rate, you have to wonder if he could have a card worth hundreds of thousands of dollars some day.

Tulo can be compared to the likes of Wagner, Banks, Smith, and Yount.

That’s pretty impressive. It isn’t often where you can be compared to Honus Wagner. Tulo has also had comparable statistics to those of Robin Yount’s and Ernie Banks. Certainly something to be proud of.

While on the topic, imagine where the Rockies might be without Tulo throughout the course of the last few years. We’re talking about a guy who hits for AVG and power, a guy who flashes the glove, and will even get you the occasional stolen base. He displayed a solid OPS+ of 138 and an OBP of .381 to go along with a .568 SLG. That’s pretty unusual for a shortstop. My question I pose to you is-do you think the same way? Do you think Shin-Soo Choo or Brian McCann are more underrated than the Rockies slugger?

I’m looking and hoping for Tulo to proceed with his brilliant career in a Rockies uniform. If History repeats itself, Tulo could join the hall of fame among with other greats such as Honus Wagner, Ernie Banks, Phil Ruzzuto, Robin Yount, and Ozzie Smith. Troy can and should remain one of the best players (not just SS) in the game, even if that means being overshadowed by some overrated players (as known as Derek Jeter).

The AL East Has Shifted Gears

Posted by Wilchiro

We all know that the New York Yankees have been successful for as long as they have been a franchise. We all have heard of the infamous Yankees-Red Sox rivalry that will live on forever. We know that in recent years, the Rays have built up one of the best farm systems in baseball, therefore leading to success. We know that the Jays have always been in the mix, but never finished on top. And, well, we all know about the Orioles.

When studying the statistics, Derek Jeter wouldn't have scored a mega-deal on the open market.

But this year, it’s a different story. You might be surprised to hear that the Yankees might not neccesarily be on top. The Rays might not make the playoffs. The Blue Jays might have a chance at their destiny. This is likely all new to you’re ears.

Entering the offseason, the Yankees had three tasks ahead of them-Andy Pettite, Cliff Lee, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter. It was evident that the later two were locks to come back, and it was almost a lock that Cliff Lee would wear pinstripes in 2011. But in a strange twist in fate, the Yankees offseason went downhill. After long and hard talks, the Yankees inked Derek Jeter to a dreadful overpay. They watched as Andy Pettite acknowledged his retirement, and then watched Cliff Lee join the Philadelphia Phillies. It is assumed that the Yankees just won’t be the team that they were thought to be in 2011.

Meanwhile, the Rays had it all worse. Remember the core of the franchise? David Price, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and Carlos Pena? Well, half of those guys have packed their bags. Crawford joined big-time rival Boston Red Sox on a seven year deal, with Pena joining the Chicago Cubs to man 1B. The Rays also missed out on Joaquin Benoit and Rafael Soriano among others, making them arguably the biggest losers of the offseason. They added little to the team to make up for these losses, and their are swirling questions to wheather or not they can even contend in 2011. It looks like the Rays will have to re-start their project of building up the farm.

Carl Crawford was the king of the crop for this year's free agent market.

The Orioles have made it clear that they are not re-building. They immediatly went out and knabbed Mark Reynolds in exhange for young pitcher David Hernandez and a prospect. Despite the loss of ace Kevin Millwood, this is a positive change for the O’s, as it adds alot of pop to their lineup. With a middle of the order consisting of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Mark Reynolds, I think that it’s okay to assume that the Orioles are a better team entering Opening Day. Not a division contender, but certainly one in the future.

The Jays off-season is questionable-are they re-building? After a solid 2010 campaign that saw them win upwards of 80 games, the Jays sold off ace Shaun Marcum in exchange for young 2B prospect Brett Lawrie. And after watching Lyle Overbay walk in free agency, the Blue Jays must find their new 1B. Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche are both upgrades, and could strive in the hitter’s paradise in the Rogers Centre. It seems to me that the Blue Jays are eyeing now and the future, but expecting to compete with the Red Sox is going to be tough.

And last but certainly not least-actually the best-the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox went out this offseason and made it known that they were not afraid to spend money. They traded Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and a PTBNL for Adrian Gonzalez, inked Carl Crawford to a seven year deal, and signed some relievers in Matt Albers and Dan Wheeler to bolster their bullpen. And with Kolbrin Vitek, Anthony Ranaudo, Bryce Brentz, Jose Inglesias, and Lars Anderson still in the minors, with one of the best major league core’s in the game, the Red Sox are simply the best team in the AL East, and the best team in baseball, for that matter. I guess you can expect for that to happen when you are basically given upwards of $200MM to spend before the whole off-season is even all said and done (Adrian Gonzalez’s likely spring contract was configured into that amount).

Mark Reynolds is a nice addition to a young Orioles lineup.

So now with the rundown, I have some projections-here they are.

1. Boston Red Sox-Solid rotation led by Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and the best lineup in baseball. They are a much improved team from 2010.

2. New York Yankees-Although doing little to improve, the Yankees are the Yankees, period. They arguably lossed little to nothing, as Pettite likely has little left to offer from the tank.

3. Tampa Bay Rays-Even with the sudden drop-off, the Rays are still a solid ballclub. They have a solid core of Evan Longoria and David Price, and with one of the most depthiest minors systems in the majors, the Rays will be good again in no time.

4. Toronto Blue Jays-I predict that they will be good, just not as good as the teams listed above. If they ride Hill out and deal him at the deadline, Lawrie will get some playing time and we’ll see what he has to offer. Again, they need a 1B.

5. Baltimore Orioles-The O’s improved, but not enough to make them a legit threat as a playoff contender in 2011. Reynolds was a solid deal and they are making a step in the right direction.

All of these teams are ballclubs with considerable upside. This has always been the case for the Yankees and the Red Sox, and as long as they keep winning, it always will. The Rays continue to stack up on the young talent with the low payroll. The Blue Jays are decent, but are struggling to get to the top. And the O’s are turning into the Rays 2.0.

If you would like to make you’re own personal projections for the AL East, post in the comments. This is going to be one fantastic division to watch this year.

The Phillies Rotation Has Joined an Elite Group

Posted by Wilchiro

The Phillies rotation has joined an elite group of rotations, including the '97 Braves.

We all remember last December, one year and six days from today- December 16th, 2009. The mega blockbuster deal that stole the headlines, Roy Halladay to the Phillies with Cliff Lee heading to Seattle. It was amazing especially for a Seattle fan specifically because it came out of the blue, but it was also exciting for the typical Phillies fan… except for one part-they had to say goodbye to  Cliff Lee, certainly another elite starter. Things have changed, since that day. At the trade deadline, the Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt in a steal of a deal, and just recently, the Phillies brought in the King of the Crop-Cliff Lee.

If you didn’t think the Phillies could put up a fight before, they certainly can now. I remember a year or two back when I used wins to determine the strength of pitchers, but I have changed drastically since then… and the sabermetric world has as well. Luckily, we now have the stat “WAR”, otherwise known as Wins above Replacement to determine any players value. And according to this, the Phillies have now completed the impossible-they have joined an elite group of ten rotations in baseball history, each of which that have four pitchers with a four or more WAR. This list includes infamous rotations, such as the 1967 Cincinatti Reds (actually had five pitchers with a four or more WAR), the 1997 Atlanta Braves (yes, this is the rotation that consisted of Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz), the 1997 New York Yankees, the 1991 Atlanta Braves, the 1960 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1913 New York Giants, the 1912 Boston Red Sox, the 1912 Pittsburgh Pirates, the 1909 Philadelphia Phillies, and now this marvelous rotation.

Unfortunatly, Bill James has not come out with WAR projections, but the fans projections are all optimistic, perhaps overly optimistic. The lowest WAR out of Fans’ projections is Hamels, and even that is at a 4.3 mark.

There you have it. In a small but informative post, I hope you got a snapshot of just how dominate the Phillies rotation is.

Zack Attack’s Impact

Posted by Wilchiro

Greinke reportedly demanded the Royals to be traded.

It was evident entering the 2011 offseason that the Milwaukee Brewers were starving for pitching. After a down year as a whole, the Brewers pitching staff had a 4.58 team ERA, good for one of the worst in the league. It was looking as if the Brew Crew were going to have to surrender star 1B Prince Fielder to get help in that area.

Totally different story. The Brewers ended up dealing stud 2B prospect Brett Lawrie to the Toronto Blue Jays for veteran Shaun Marcum, a hit to their rather weak minors system, but a definite upgrade to their staff. And just yesterday afternoon, it was announced that a finalized trade between the Royals and Brewers had been completed, sending former Cy Young ace Zack Greinke to Milwaukee along with SS Yuniesky Betancourt for OF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress. There are mixed thoughts on this trade, as many think the Royals sold short for their coveted ace, but others think that the Brewers are throwing away their future. A contract extension would certainly be key to fix this worry.

I am now going to post the players involved in the trade, and their impact for their new respective ballclubs. We all know that Zack Greinke was the spotlight of this deal. He is the real deal, as shown by his 2009 Cy Young award. In some cases, ‘Zack Attack’ had a down year in 2010 by his standards, but this could be due to not having a solid offense. Greinke did not get four runs of support in any game until early September. That hurt his win total, if you will. He had a slightly unlucky year in 2010, but it doesn’t quite hurt his resume. Although this trade came out of the blue, Greinke adds a huge impact to a struggling Brewers rotation that is now one of the deepest, consisting of Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum.

Betancourt is essentially a throw-in to this deal, and doesn’t carry much value, but he could take on starting duties as the Brewers SS in 2010. His bat is his most valuable asset, as he can consistently give you 10-15 HRs. His defense is terrible though, and his lazy approach is a negative. I speculate that the $2M sent to the Brew Crew in the deal is the money that can be used to buyout Yuni’s contract at the end of the season in 2012.

Now, what the Royals got. This is an interesting deal for the Royals. They fill some holes by getting Escobar and Cain, but is this the best they could have gotten? Escobar is essentially a younger Carlos Gomez, if you will. Cain carries some value, but he is hardly a top 100 prospect. Jeffries, a pitching prospect contained in the deal, has had a history of drug problems, although he did thrive in a small sample size of appearances in the majors. Jake Odorozzi is a decent young prospect, but with a ton of pitching prospects already in the majors, with Montgomery, Lamb, and Crow, he won’t make an immediate impact soon, as he is still in low-A ball.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Greinke reportedly demanded a trade, and refused to stay a Royal by Opening Day. So, the trade came. While as this might not be the best return in the world for Greinke, it’s a good one. You have to be excited by the future of this ballclub. Hosmer, Escobar, Montgomery, Cain, Lamb, Crow, Myers, the list goes on and on. The Royals have done such a good job of building of their farm system, that you wonder if they will be a serious division contender in the near future.

So, we just saw the Zack Greinke trade. We saw that the Royals obtained four young prospects in return. What do you think? Is stud closer Joakim Soria the next to go now? What could they secure in a deal?

Adrian Gonzalez’s Impact for the Red Sox

Posted by Wilchiro

Three months ago, if you were to come up to me and say “Adrian Gonzalez is going to be traded”, I wouldn’t have believed you. The unbelievable has happened, folks. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Padres slugger Adrian Gonzalez is heading to the Boston Red Sox for Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Raymend Fuentes, and a player to be named later.

Adrian Gonzalez can do alot of different things for teams.

So, What impact does this make on Boston’s roster and what does it do for San Diego? For Boston, “A-Gon” can do alot of things for you. He can hit for power, and this is shown by 31 HR’s on the year with 101 RBI’s. He gets on base. A career .368 OBP and .393 mark on the year is certainly nothing to sneeze at. He has the ability to hit the ball the other way, and he couldn’t be utilized any better somewhere else in this particular situation, as the Green Monster is one of the shortest distances to home plate around baseball. He has a solid glove, and this is shown by a slightly above average UZR/150 of 0.9. And heck, he’s even cheap, as he is earning just $5.5MM entering the 2011 season.

There is only one issue. Adrian Gonzalez is only signed through 2011. And after that, he’s not going to be cheap. He is reportedly asking for a Ryan Howard-esque contract, and that is well deserved. A-Gon is just as good in terms of overall talent, if not better. The Red Sox currently have a short negotiating window to work out terms on a contract extension.

But meanwhile, what does this do for the Padres? You can tell by this trade that they are trying to get younger, and this was probably one of the best packages they could have received for Gonzalez, considering the status of his contract. Initially looking at this offer, most people just want to say that this is a pathetic offer, and any team from around baseball could have offered a similar package. But even though the centerpiece of the deal, Kelly, had a mediocre year when studying the standard statistics, he shows alot of promise and was really unlucky on the year. And with the uncertainty of Kyle Blanks injury situation, Anthony Rizzo could potentially become the immediete starting 1B entering the start of the season. And even at a low level, Rizzo’s numbers even look comparible to those of Gonzalez’s, as he is left handed with legitimate power. Reymond Fuentes is essentially a throw in prospect who likely won’t be in any of the Padres future plans, with sub-average numbers at just Class A. And the player to be named probably isn’t anyone very huge, the best case scenario for the Padres would be Felix Doubront, but I think Stolmy Pimental is more likely to be the guy.

Adrian Beltre has a track record of performing in contract years.

So where does this put Boston as a team overall? Alot of the impact comes from the result of the contract extension, which is key. If something can not be worked out, and all things come to the worst, the Red Sox get him for one year and go after a solid outfielder in one of Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. Alot of people don’t understand why the Red Sox wouldn’t just re-sign all-star 3B Adrian Beltre. It is probably because Beltre is older, has a track record of injuries, and was demanding a hefty amount of years for alot of money. He also seems to only come through in contract years.

And, where does this put the Padres? It definitely puts their lineup in a critical situation. You can never be too proud to say that you’re best offensive threat is Chase Headley. But it gives them some extra depth in the minors to go along with pitcher Simon Castro, and it gives them alot to be excited about for the future. The Padres are forming one of the best, young rotations in the game with this trade, while getting a minor league 1B of similar comparision in Anthony Rizzo.

So, who won this trade? I am going to say the BoSox. They got one of the best 1B in the game while giving up a nice package, but not a great package. What the Padres got is not bad at all, with the uncertainty of Adrian Gonzalez’s contract situation. But if the Sox’ can extend A-Gon long term and go out and sign a solid outfielder of Crawford or Werth’s caliber, this team will not only be good now, they will be solid in the long run. With this trade, I see the Red Sox as a strong candidate to take the AL East title in 2010, and a threat to make a push deep into the playoffs. And with a full fledged, injury free offense, watch out, Yankees and Rays, you might have a new division winner in 2011.

 

The Mariners Shouldn’t Rebuild

Posted by Wilchiro

“I dream of putting the Mariners in the playoffs.”

Those are the words of Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez after winning the American League Cy Young in mid-November. And this brought up many very interesting points in my head.

There are only two teams currently in baseball that have never won a World Series: The Washington Nationals, and the Seattle Mariners. Since 2002, the Mariners have been an average team overall, respectively. Definitely nothing huge. Not one playoff appearence since that magical 2001 season in which the M’s won 116 games, tieing the all-time record with the Chicago Cubs. Seriously, what is the reasoning for this?

King Felix's hope is to bring a playoff birth to Seattle in the near future.

Is it mediocre management? Bill Bavasi made alot of key moves to screw this ballclub. A few samples include his signing of Carlos Silva to a four year, $48MM deal in 2008, His trades that sent Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera in trades to the Indians for limited returns of Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez, or maybe even the massive haul given up for pitcher Erik Bedard, a solid pitcher at the time, but injury problems have held him back.

Or is it the ballpark? Safeco Field has been deemed by most to be one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in baseball. When hitters come here, they faulter. Richie Sexson, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Jack Wilson, the list goes on and on. This has hurt the Mariners in many ways, and has even hurt Hall of Fame outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. in his attempt to make one final hard push.

Either way, this is a ballclub that is once again, in rebuilding mode. After a solid 2009, the Mariners have sunk again in 2010, even after one of the best offseasons in recent years. This is tough for the core of this franchise. Right Fielder Ichiro Suzuki has been here for a decade, and has never experienced a World Series game. Dave Niehaus was the famous announcer here in the Emerald City for over three decades, and never accomplished the huge feat.

So, what exactly can the Mariners do to return to the glory of the golden ’90 years?

They need to go for it. D-Dizzle, the Cardinals writer here at Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors has brought up time after time, that top prospects don’t always suceed. In fact, it is rather rare that prospects will suceed at a high level. Out of youngsters Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Nick Franklin, it is extremely unlucky that all four will turn into MLB stars.

Bringing in a proven talent like Colby Rasmus could really help the Mariners in competing now.

The Mariners need to stay a little loose. They should feel comfortable to set these prospects on the trading block for the right price. The Mariners should go after talent such as Colby Rasmus, Justin Upton, Shin-Soo Choo, or someone of that caliber, that will not only produce in the future, they will produce now. And they have proven themselves.

What exactly would it cost to get someone of that caliber? Likely at least two of the four prospects mentioned. But that’s ok. This is a move that not only brings excitement to fans and sells tickets, it makes an immediete difference. These are proven prospects. They are star ballplayers at the some of the most affordable salaries around baseball.

So, Felix Hernandez, it is not only your hope that this dream comes true, this is my ultimate dream as well. I pray that in the four years remaining in your contract, your dream will be accomplished. I hope that it happens sooner, because we have made key moves to acquire young, proven talent. I hope that the Seattle Mariners will have World Series rings on their fingers sometime in the near future.

Carlos Gonzalez Proved Himself Lucky in a Couple of Ways

Posted by Wilchiro

After a fantastic 2010 season, Carlos Gonzalez finished third in the National League MVP voting. Many fans were dissapointed that he didn’t win the award, and this is understandable. Gonzalez slugged 34 homeruns and 117 RBI’s, which can definitely stand out to the casual fan. It would be foolish to say that he was anything short of fantastic, as he was excellent as shown by his MVP-esque numbers. But in this post, I have decided to experiment. What if Gonzalez played on another team, in another ballpark? What if we were to focus on just his peripherals? Whould he really be the Car-Go that we saw this year? I am about to tell you.

A third place vote in MVP voting is reasonable, but Cargo overperformed in 2010.

To start out, there is no denying that Carlos Gonzalez has come a long way. After bouncing around from the Diamondbacks to the Athletics and now the Rockies, he has arisen as one of the premier players of the game. After a shaky first few years in the majors, Car-Go has really transformed into a solid all-around player. But he was lucky as well. Entering the 2010 season, Gonzalez’s career BABIP was right around .326. In 2010, that mark skyrocketed up to .384. His wOBA (weighted on base average) also went from a career mark of .333 all the way up to .416. What caused everything to suddenly click for Car-Go?

When trying to figure out what caused this sudden success, you must take the ballpark into account. According to ESPN, Coors Field is the 2nd most hitter friendly ballpark in the majors after U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago. But was this the true factor for the sudden sprout? Maybe. Another thing to take into account are his LD% and GB%. His LD% in 2010 of 20.8% is down from his 2009 mark of 23.4%. But his GB% presents another result, as his 2010 mark of 42.5% was up from his 2009 mark of 37.8%.

When comparing peripherals, McCutchen and Cargo are two very similar ballplayers.

So, Carlos Gonzalez is currently on the Colorado Rockies and will likely remain on the Rockies for the next several years to come, but let’s say for a second that Rockies GM Daniel O’Dowd decided to trade Carlos Gonzalez from one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the major leagues, to the Pirates’ PNC Park, the 5th most pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors. How would Gonzalez likely fair as a Pirate? Luckily, this experiment has already been completed for us-his name is Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen has posted nearly identical splits to those of Carlos Gonzalez’s, with an LD% of 18.8% and a GB% of 43.4%. Therefore, Carlos Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen are similar players overall. Except for the fact that McCutchen has not been nearly as fortunate. He has slugged 16 HR’s on the year with 56 RBI’s, to go along with a triple slash line of .286/.365/.449. His wOBA mark of .363 was solid, but much lower then Gonzalez’s .416. These are good overall numbers, but they are not overwhelming, and they certainly wouldn’t win third in the MVP voting. Both of these young superstars posted below average UZR’s, though, with Gonzalez at a -2.7 mark and McCutchen at a much lower mark of -14.4.

I am not trying to take away from or penalize Carlos Gonzalez for what he has done, by no means. I actually strongly believe that Gonzalez is amongst the most underrated players in the game, and many people would agree with me. These kind of stats easily deserved a birth to the All-Star game. But the truth is, Car-Go is blessed to be able to play in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks throughout baseball, where as similar players like Andrew McCutchen play in some of the non so hitter friendly ballfields. In an MVP situation, you want the best player to win, like stated in the Cahill case, and the voters got it right this time, selecting Votto for the coveted award. You just never know how good Car-Go might actually be if he played in a different ballpark. His power numbers would likely be down, that’s for sure. I am glad the BBWAA voters are starting to slowly but surely get these votes right, by picking Felix Hernandez for the American League Cy Young award, which was well deserved.

To sum this up, Carlos Gonzalez is a very gifted player and he definetely deserved some recognition for this award. But he was very lucky, and the voters got this one right this time, picking Reds 1B Joey Votto for the MVP.

Are Jack Wilson’s days in Seattle Numbered?

Posted by Wilchiro

At mid-season in 2009, Jack Zduriencik acquired Jack Wilson and Ian Snell from the Pirates for Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Clement, and some prospects. To tell you the truth, I was actually quite happy about this trade at the time. Cedeno was a career utility man at best, Clement was a bust as a prospect, and the prospects given up in the deal were nothing all that special. In return, the Mariners received a light hitting but electric glove in Wilson, and a pitcher with some upside in Ian Snell.

In 2009, the Mariners acquired Jack Wilson for his electric glove. That trade has not worked out as planned.

Two years later, the trade that brought to experienced veterans to Seattle has not turned out as planned. Ian Snell was designated for assignment early on in the season after multiple struggles, and Wilson has played through injuries, as shown by just 61 games played on the year. Wilson’s injuries have taken away from his numbers all-around, as his glove has sunk below average with a UZR of -0.5. His bat is just terrible with a .249/.282/.316 slash line in 2010 with an incredibly low ISO of .067 to go along with that. And at $5MM a year, I question, is he even worth what he’s earning annually?

Unfortunatly, the alternative is not much better. Infact, it’s worse. Josh Wilson started 108 games for the Mariners in 2010, slashing .227/.278/.294 with an ISO of just .066. And you know that the power is an issue when you’re only hitting one homerun per 194 PA’s. His glove is even worse then Jack’s at a -2.1 UZR mark.

So, what can the Mariners do to fix this? Neither shortstop has much value, infact, neither has any trade value at all. I almost believe that it would be a smarter option to designate Jack Wilson for assignment. Josh Wilson can make a decent utility player, with the ability to play all four infield positions. And besides, why pay $5MM when all he is doing is taking away from the team?

Unfortunatly, the Mariners best SS prospect in the minor leagues, Nick Franklin, is a long way away from the majors. So, the next best option after Franklin is Carlos Triunfel. He, too, is a ways away, as he spent the season in Double-A for Seattle. And, even his numbers are not much better then those of either Wilson’s, with just a .260/.288/.334 slash line.

Reyes could be an interesting Plan B if the Mariners fail to sign JJ Hardy.

So, here is an option- JJ Hardy. The Minnesota Twins just won the bidding for stud Japanese 2B-Tsuyoshi Nishioka earlier in the day, and the Twins are pondering non-tendering the shortstop in this tweet by AOL Fanhouse writer Jeff Fletcher. Hardy’s overall numbers of .268/.320/.394 weren’t spectacular, but they are a significant upgrade over both of the Wilson’s marks. He also hit .304/.363/.442 after the All-Star break this year. And as you may already know, the Mariners have a “defense first” philosphy, and Hardy fits that bill, with an 8.1 UZR on the season.

Another darkhorse option could be Jose Reyes of the New York Mets. The M’s have made it known that they are in rebuilding mode and will likely not go after any “big names” this offseason, but this is a little different. Reyes was recently set on the trading block by New York, and he’d help the Mariners in alot of different areas. His ability to switch hit and steal bases are both pluses. His career 16.5 UZR is respectable, and the M’s could certainly live with his down year with the glove.

To sum things up here, what do I think Seattle will do in the end? I think they will suffer another season with the injury-plagued platoon option of the two Wilson’s, and wait until the end of 2011 when Jack’s contract expires. But even in a rebuilding phase, wouldn’t it be in the best option to run the best team you have out on to the field each game? I’d sure think so. Jack Zduriencik’s job is to make this team better with every oppurtunity that he has, and I believe that this is one of those golden oppurtunities.